The Chessboard and the Web: An Unnecessary Distinction?

Review by Nikki Hinshaw, M.A. Global Communication, ’22

Within the field of international affairs, the metaphor of the chessboard has long been utilized to explain the strategic relationships between states. In “Global Complexity: Intersection of Chessboard and Web Trends,” Anne-Marie Slaughter (2016) emphasizes the importance of viewing the field not only as a chessboard, but as a web as well.

Anne-Marie Slaughter

Slaughter defines the web as “intersecting networks of people, groups, businesses, institutions, and governments.” While the chessboard assumes states are the main actors, interacting with one another through competitive actions and alliances, the web reflects the wide range of actors involved in the international system and their relationships to one another.

To support this view of the world, Slaughter provides several examples of chessboard and web trends – and how they intersect. In 2015, the largest trends on the chessboard included an increasing unpredictability with regards to international negotiations on pressing global issues, such as climate change and internet governance. Also on the chessboard was Iran as a rising power and the strengthening of the European Union. On the surface, all of these issues seem to deal with state-to-state relations and negotiations, but Slaughter also exposes a web of players that influence these overarching trends in the international system.

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Mass refugee migration rose as the most prominent web trend of 2015, intersecting with the chessboard through immigration measures of the EU and various nations. The web trend of nativist populism also intersected with anti-immigrant policies operating on the chessboard. “Franchise terrorism,” where organizations such as ISIL connect separate groups under their ideologies and goals, appeared as another prominent web trend. A common thread across all of the web trends was the use of social media as a form of communication, mobilization, and advocacy.

Slaughter’s description of the international system as both a chessboard and a web helps us better understand the great power that actors such as nonprofits, media, corporations, and publics can have on foreign policy. However, as the influence of such actors has continued to grow, I believe that Slaughter’s analysis can be taken even further. Thus, I pose the question of whether distinguishing between the chessboard and the web is still necessary, or if all actors should just be examined as a part of the web?

Slaughter’s main argument for the separation of the two playing fields is that actors operating on the chessboard can choose whether to connect with others, in contrast to web trends, which only exist to extent that they are connected with others. As web trends increase in prominence on the global stage, they are now deeply intertwined with the chessboard. Thus, states do not have as much of a choice in connecting as Slaughter assumes. Such choices are influenced heavily by public pressure and the media, as was showcased through her analysis of U.S. and E.U. citizens’ concerns over privacy and technology. Slaughter notes how this web trend could be expected to affect chessboard-level government relationships between the countries.

Furthermore, I argue that the actors operating within the web, such as media, are just as relevant foreign policy decision-makers as those operating on the chessboard. This idea was demonstrated through Baum & Potter’s (2008) visual representation of the interconnected relationships between various actors and their analysis of media as decision-making elites (41, 53).

Web trends have become too influential to separate from the chessboard. Instead, all foreign policy decision-makers – whether that be publics, media, or governments – should be thought of in terms of a web of interconnected priorities and opinions that exert influence over one another in the creation of foreign policy.

Works Cited

Baum, Matthew and Philip Potter. 2008. The Relationship Between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis. Annual Review of Political Science, 11. 41, 53. 

Slaughter, Anne-Marie. 2016. Global Complexity: Intersection of Chessboard and Web. CIDOB, 5.

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.

We Are All Connected: International relations and political science

With 193 member states, the United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a center for harmonizing the actions of nations.

The year 2020 marks the 75th anniversary of the United Nations and its founding Charter. This anniversary comes in a time of great disruption for the world, compounded by an unprecedented global health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with severe economic and social impacts. But it is also a reminder that times of struggle can become an opportunity for positive change and transformation.

The Model UN is a simulation of the UN General Assembly and its other multilateral bodies where students from high school and college perform an ambassadorial role while debating globally important topics such as climate change, gender equality, and global health.

As an undergraduate at Sam Houston State University, Texas, SMPA graduate student Victoria Makanjuola participated in the Model UN Her faculty adviser was Dr. Dennis Weng.

PDx Interviewer Victoria Makanjuola (second from left) and her team at the UN General Assembly room, 2019

For this PDx episode, Victoria talks to Dr. Weng about the Model UN experience; learning how countries interact and engage at a multilateral organization.

>Listen to the PDx interview HERE.

Dr. Weng also emphasizes the importance of political science and international relations: “it’s not just a subject…not textbook knowledge. It’s life. (These) have a direct influence on (our) daily life because we are all connected.”

To learn more about Model UN, go to https://unausa.org/model-un/

To celebrate UN Day, an annual concert is usually held in the General Assembly Hall. This year, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the concert will be prerecorded and screened in the GA Hall on Thursday,  October 22, 2020, at 12.00 pm EST.  This will be shown on UN Web TV (webtv.un.org), the UN Channel on YouTubeFacebook and Twitter.

The importance of citizen engagement in PD 

Nonprofit Learning Life logoAlso, the US State Department presents 2020 Citizen Diplomacy Awards

B&W photo of Learning Life founder
Paul Lachelier

Our interconnected world is ever-changing, and if recent months have shown, having global connections does not always mean better understanding and cooperation among people and their governments. Diplomacy has been always been a practical approach to addressing these moments of disconnect and tension. However, non-government organizations have sometimes led the way by spearheading programs that get citizens involved in diplomacy.

PDx interviewer Victoria Makanjuola talks to Paul Lachelier, founder and director of Washington, DC-based non-profit lab Learning Life. The mission of the organization is to promote lifelong learning and citizen engagement. By using innovative approaches, Paul explains, Learning Life seeks to encourage and provide ways to know more about the wider world – especially amongst communities who do not always have that economic or social access –  finding ways to “democratize opportunity” with programs such as International Mentoring and Family Diplomacy Initiative.

To find out more about Learning Life and its programs, go to their website or write to email@learninglife.info

Here is the latest PDx podcast with Paul Lachelier: Learning Life and the sharing of democracy.

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Also happening on Wednesday, September 30, is the U.S. State Department presentation of the 2020 Citizen Diplomacy Award to Mr. Mohamed Amin Ahmed, Founder, Chairman, and Executive Director of “Average Mohamed”. Average Mohamed is a counter ideology organization dedicated to stopping extremism and hate. The mission of Average Mohamed is to use ideas to defeat ideas, to find local solutions to global problems, and to promote peace, anti-extremism, and democracy to kids where they are: on social media.

Read more about the Citizen Diplomacy Award: https://www.state.gov/citizen-diplomacy-award/

Connecting in the time of Covid-19: US Embassy Moscow

With a global pandemic and lockdowns in many countries, U.S. diplomats have to find different ways to engage with people in their host countries. In this PDx episode, GW student Olivia Estes interviews Karl Stoltz, Counselor for Public Affairs at the US Embassy in Moscow, Russia.

Together with the challenges of the U.S.-Russia bilateral relationship, Karl and his Public Affairs team have had to be very creative in coming up with content for virtual programs that would appeal to the Russian public who are stuck at home. He even recruited family to participate in a presentation on American music!

Karl also recounts his previous posting to Moscow, right before the fall of the Berlin Wall; and crises he has experienced in other countries. Karl is a Senior Foreign Service Officer who joined the service in 1986 and has served in Washington, D.C., Europe, Africa, East Asia, and the Pacific. Karl was the GW Visiting State Department Public Diplomacy Fellow, 2018 – 2019.

Please enjoy this PDx episode on Connecting in the time of Covid-19: US Embassy Moscow.

Other PDx episodes are available here.

“Infected” Olympic Games

By Saori E., MA Media & Strategic Communication

COVID-19 is rampant in the world today. The virus, which originated in Wuhang, China, is being successfully contained in China. However, its neighboring country, Japan, is struggling to prevent people from getting infected with the new virus partly because of the government’s different ways of controlling their message compared to China. The reality and government’s message should always be balanced out to mitigate issues.

Effects of COVID-19 in Japan

On March 14, the President of Japan, Abe, enacted the Special Measures Act, which allowed him to issue an Emergency Declaration. Once the Emergency Declaration is issued, it would enable the government to regulate public behavior by law.

In Japan’s case, the government aims to build a stronger economic environment through the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Because of this, the president hesitated to undertake the process for an emergency declaration. This declaration would hinder industries involved in Olympic preparation which were supposed to host the Olympics this summer, and lead to the delay of the preparation. However, since the Tokyo Olympics is likely to be postponed to 2021 in any event, the government decided to issue this declaration.

Comparison of The Governmental Reaction To COVID-19

The governments of China and Japan have reacted differently to the Coronavirus with their measures reflecting each country’s priorities, those which ended as a success and failure respectively. China maintained the balance of reality and message by controlling the reality itself to fit with their ideal message, whereas Japan did not change their message even when the reality changed.

China:

The Chinese government’s major priority was to prevent their people from causing panic resulting in the government losing trust and to maintain the national stability. Their reaction to the COVID-19 was forceful, which manipulated the reality to balance out with the message that the government was willing to spread to their people. The way China took control of the reality was as follows:

  1. No restrictions on people from travelling around the world during the Lunar New Year holiday
  2. Management of major social media such as Wechat and Weibo to prohibit people from spreading false news

Since the rise of COVID-19 was right before the Lunar New Year holiday, the government did not restrict people from going to other countries because they did not want sudden restriction of travelling to cause panic for people going overseas. Such an action by the government could lead to the rise of a negative impression towards the government by Chinese citizens.

Additionally, the Chinese constitution clearly states that although people have rights of freedom of expression on online networks, the government can infringe upon this in order to maintain the safety of the people; this enables the government to encroach into people’s privacy more than other countries. This allowed them to warn their people that they will be punished if they spread false information.

This focus on the organization of people was due to the China’s priority of maintaining the people’s trust in the government. The fact that the government was able to manage people’s movements resulted in the decrease in infection. The match of the reality and message supported the government’s original priority which is to prevent people from causing panic.

Japan:

The Japanese government’s major message for the people has always been based on their focus on fiscal reconstruction, and the Tokyo 2020 Olympics was their major priority for that. They did not change this way of messaging even when COVID-19 went rampant, and as a result, the changing reality undermined the government’s message. The policies that Japan issued along with their message to maintain Japan’s economic level and not controlling the reality is shown as of below.

  1. No restrictions for Chinese tourists visiting Japan during Lunar New Year holidays.
  2. No legal penalty for spreading false information online

The Abe cabinet has been focusing on the fiscal reconstruction from the beginning of their tenure, and in order to do so, he has been trying to build a stronger relationship with China. Because of this, Japan could not restrict the Chinese tourists from coming to Japan during the Luna New Year holidays even if they knew the risk of accepting people from China with regard to COVID-19. Rejecting people from China at the end of January would not have given a good impression for the Chinese government.

The Japanese government was focusing too much on economic aspects and did not restrict online information. This caused false information to spread, and the government was not able to deliver their message effectively. Because of the flooding information online, various realities were created and Japan was not able to clearly deliver its message to the people.

Even when the reality was changing, Japan kept on sending out messages based on their focus on economic aspects, which led to the unbalance of reality and messaging, resulting not only to the loss of control in COVID-19 but also the postponement of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics itself.

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.

 

The Battle of Messaging: Indonesian Palm Oil and the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II)

By Oryza Astari, M.A. International Affairs ‘20

Rainforest Action Network’s “Indonesia, Climate Change, and Rainforests” report describes destruction of Indonesia’s rainforests as one of the leading causes of climate change. Furthermore, Greenpeace describes Indonesia as one of the “top tier emitters of global greenhouse gas emissions” due to deforestation.

This environmental narrative—accepted widely by the international community and particularly by the European Union (EU)—conflicts with Indonesia’s own version of the story.

On March 25, the Tanah Merah project in Indonesia’s easternmost province of Papua officially began, as it cleared out rainforests to make way for palm oil. Mongabay and the Gecko Project, two media companies that focus on conservation, report that the project is estimated to generate US$6 billion in timber and create a large palm oil plantation “almost twice the size of London.” Clearing Papuan rainforests will emit immeasurable amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, exacerbating the climate crisis.

Cargill’s problems with palm oil

The EU, an international leader in international environmental efforts, introduced its latest Renewable Energy Directive, dubbed RED II, in response to the deforestation in Indonesia. RED II introduces a new approach to biofuels based on the concept of indirect land use change (ILUC). ILUC is the transformation of carbon-rich forests, wetlands, and peatlands, into land(s) used to produce crops for biofuels, resulting in the vast release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The EU argues that ILUC risks “negating” the savings that result from the use of biofuels; thus, the use of such “high risk” crops as palm oil will be phased out by 2030.

Below, I will present the Indonesian perspective on the issue, followed by the EU response to the Indonesian narrative. Finally, I will conclude by presenting the winner of the narrative battle.

The Indonesian government’s strategy in its narrative battle against the EU involves evoking emotional content and controlling the process of the project.

First, Indonesian officials invoke inflammatory words when describing RED II. Such words evoke a particular narrative that engages audiences on an emotional level, bringing out emotions such as anger or even disappointment, particularly for the Indonesian audience. For instance, Former Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita called the move protectionist, arguing that the policy is aimed to support European biofuels producers of rapeseed and sunflower oils.

Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahendra Siregar concurred, calling it a “‘structured and systematic’ campaign to block palm oil” from competing with European-grown biofuels. Vice Minister Siregar furthered his argument by concluding that the environmental concern of RED II was simply a façade, a “guise,” for protectionism.

Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo took it a step further, calling the policy an “act of trade war.” Not only is President Jokowi evoking emotional content, he is also controlling the process of projection.

President Jokowi took the lead by repeatedly calling the EU policy a “palm oil ban.” His position, as the highest government official and the leader of the country, lends legitimacy and credibility to his message. As such, his cabinets followed his lead, and began invoking similar inflammatory words such as “discrimination” and “protectionism,” as illustrated above.

Furthermore, President Jokowi’s invocation of “trade war” puts the focus on EU-Indonesian trade on palm oil, rather than the environmental issue. In 2018, the European bloc reportedly consumed more than 7 million tons in palm oil biofuels, with 65 percent used as energy. It is evident that palm oil biofuels trade is lucrative both for the European bloc and Indonesia, pointing to the EU’s hypocrisy on the palm oil issue. Thus, the obvious response—and remedy—for Indonesia, after months of failed negotiations with EU officials, was to bring a lawsuit to the World Trade Organization in December 2019.

In response, the EU focuses their narrative argument on the epistemological and informational content. RED II was accompanied by a report with available, consistent, scientific data from 2008 to 2015. The European Commission reiterates that it arrived at the decision based on the given scientific data, which shows that palm oil has been associated with high risk of deforestation.

Furthermore, the EU invokes the identity narrative of an “Energy Union”—a bloc with a strong commitment to sustainability—in its response to Indonesia. This invocation strengthens the EU’s position, as it illustrates to the audience that the policy is harmonious with the EU’s values and identity as a champion of energy and the climate targets.

While the WTO suit will take years to be decided, in the battle of messaging between Indonesia and the EU, the winner is clear. The EU’s new policy is harmonious with its identity; its claims backed by nine years’ worth of scientific evidence. The relationship between the EU identity and scientific, enlightenment thinking makes for a cohesive, persuasive message that is consistent with the EU’s narrative.

On the other hand, Indonesia’s counter-messaging campaign on the “palm oil ban,” although strong for the local audience, has been unsuccessful. Indonesia’s lack of response on deforestation claims is dissonant with the wider environmental messaging, which have been accepted by the scientific community and international audience. More importantly, Indonesia’s latest Papua shows that its loss was not simply due to the EU’s more persuasive message, but because its narrative simply does not match its reality.

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.

Message & Culture Clash in the Age of Covid-19

By Leah Bacon, M.A Strategic Communication and Media ’20

On March 14, 2020 Rwanda’s Ministry of Health reported its first positive case of Covid-19. The country was the first African nation to issue a two-week lockdown. This included the closure of schools and places of worship, prohibiting large gatherings and unnecessary movements, and preventing all domestic/foreign travel, in order to mitigate the transmission of the virus.

Prime Minister, Dr. Edouard Ngirente issued a public notice on March 6th, that the country was taking the necessary preparation measures to “deal with the possible outbreak,” while also “urging all Rwandans” to play a role in fighting the virus. Rwanda is the second most densely populated country in Africa with a population of over 11 million people. Therefore, it comes to no surprise that the East African country is experiencing a rise in new cases—with 89 confirmed cases as of April 4th.

Picture of Kigali (Credit: Dr. Antoine R. Gasasira)

However, missing from discussion in the Western world regarding Covid-19 is how the message is conveyed and interpreted in various countries with vastly different social/cultural norms and resources.

In an age of globalization, media outlets are “global in scope,” “interconnected,” and “overlapping. Therefore, information is able to span national and cultural boundaries with high-rates of fluidity and speed. Although the messages are reaching a global audience, this audience is not interpreting the messages in the same way. Instead, how these messages are translated (or not translated) then becomes out of the control of the original media elites or spokespersons.

One reason interpretations vary, is messages are filtered through master narratives unique to each population. Master narratives can be defined as transnational narratives that are deeply embedded in a particular culture and are systemically reproduced (See: Master Narratives of Islamist Extremism). In the case of Rwanda, issues stem from the failure of global messaging and two of the country’s master narratives—which are rooted with historical significance:

  • Survivor Narrative: How can victims and survivors of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi understand the severity of Covid-19 when so many individuals have lived through the horrific events of the genocide?
  • Rwanda-First Narrative: The country’s messaging is centered around the strength and perseverance of the Rwandan people to do their part in curving the spread of this virus. But how do we prevent the class-based differences from emerging? Is messaging about social distancing and the importance of hand-washing being delivered to (and understood by) the more rural areas or to people with little education?

The first master narrative, the “Survivor Narrative,” plays a significant role in the country’s success in reconstruction post-genocide. It is a narrative of perseverance and strength, which has allowed the country to move forward and prosper. However, in the age of Covid-19, some Rwandans are skeptical of the severity of the virus due to the fact that so many of its people already suffered from atrocities that are incomprehensibly worse. Further arguments can be made for other countries who have suffered through war, conflict, displacement and starvation. These countries are not necessarily down-playing Covid-19, but there seems to be a disconnect between the West’s messaging on best practices (such as washing one’s hands, using hand sanitizer, or social-distancing) and what is actually available or realistic to more vulnerable populations.

Refugee Camp for Rwandans in Zaire following the 1994 Genocide (Credit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

 

The “Rwanda-First Narrative” is used in the discourse of some of the country’s media. One article highlighted that “common practice” in Rwanda is to greet with handshakes and hugs, so social distancing was initially not well-received. The country’s leading English newspaper The New Times, published an article titled, “As usual, Rwanda takes the bull by the horns with vigour and rigour.” This article praises the government and entities (doctors, police, etc.) trying to enforce the precautions of Covid-19, but in the same article the author writes, “of course, there are nasties among us who are inexplicably bent on self-exposure.” I am reflective of how difficult social distancing would be in the capital city of Kigali’s outdoor market Kimironko, which is home to hundreds of vendors, or the thousands of individuals whose livelihood depends on their motorcycles (“motos”) taxi-like service. If the messaging does not reach these individuals or if its importance is not completely understood the country will face additional burdens.

Alexander Nshimiyimana posing at his stand at the Kimironko Market (Credit: Alexander Nshimiyimana)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Moto-Drivers, Muhanga-Gitarama, Rwanda (Credit: Adam Jones, Ph.D)

Since messages are global and “absolute control over the message is impossible,” each country must be vigilant in their messaging and understanding of the varying groups that make up their audience, in order to make strides in halting this global pandemic.

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.

Terminating the Visiting Forces Agreement: A Philippine Independence Story

By Barbara Alberts, M.A. Media and Strategic Communication ’20

In February, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte announced he intended to terminate the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between the Philippines and the United States. The VFA allowed the United States to station military forces in Philippine military bases, and the two militaries to execute joint military exercise and operations in the country. The U.S. military presence in the Philippines was also seen as a “security blanket” for the Philippines against China’s growing naval presence in the South China Sea. The termination would leave the United States with no legal or operational standing in the Philippines, but for some politicians in the Philippines, the ending of the agreement is seen as a step toward an independent Philippines divorced from the United States and its fate.

The image of the U.S. as a protector and ally of the Philippines has been rejected recently by Philippines government officials, citing the U.S. military as an unwelcome presence on the islands that perpetuates the idea of the United States as the Philippines’ colonizer rather than ally. The desire for independence from the United States that resulted in Duterte’s decision to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement has roots in a deep master narrative of independence in the Philippines. A master narrative is a, “transhistorical narrative that is deeply embedded in a particular culture,” (Halverson 2011). According to Halverson, “our understanding of ourselves…who we are, what we are here for, what makes us unique, and so on, is entirely bound up in the narratives we grow up hearing and the stories we connect to them,” (Halverson 2011). When it comes to public diplomacy and communication with the Philippines, understanding the master narrative of independence in the Philippines is the first step in helping understand Duterte’s foreign policy decisions as they relate to the United States.

Independence: A Philippines Master Narrative

Since Duterte took office in 2016, he has been vocal about the Philippines becoming more independent from the United States. However, his decision to terminate the VFA is also part of a slow-moving process the Philippines has taken to distance itself militarily from the United States which began in the 1990s.

CREDIT: Manila coastal plan, United States Marines Corps

Historically, the United States has exerted its power through its military bases on the Philippines. U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay, located about two and a half hours outside of Manila, was one of the US’s largest overseas military bases before it was decommissioned in 1992, when the Philippines Senate rejected a treaty that would have seen the United States provide $203 million in aid in exchange for a 10-year lease on the base. At the time, Philippine senators saw American military presence in the Philippines, “as a vestige of colonialism and an affront to Philippine sovereignty,” (Sanger 1991).

The desire for separation from the United States is part of a greater master narrative in the Philippines of independence. In the Philippines, independence is a deeply rooted value, and gaining it has been a constant battle throughout its history. There is an abundance of independence stories in the Filipino culture. First, it was the quest to gain independence from Spain, which initially colonized the islands. Then, it was the struggle to shake the United States’ rule of the land. After the Philippines gained true independence from the United States in 1946, the drive for independence turned inward during the Marcos regime from 1965-1986, which ended when he was ousted during the People Power Revolution and Corazon Aquino took office. Now, the focus has shifted outward again, with Duterte seeking military independence from the United States.

Conclusions and Recommendations 

Populism in the Philippines has been trending upward since Duterte took office (Bieber 2018), and despite the majority of Philippines citizens preferring a stronger relationship with the United States over China, and nearly 70% of Philippines citizens believing the United States would defend them from China, Duterte has spurned any sort of U.S. involvement in the Philippines.

CREDIT: U.S. Navy, 24 November 1992, PH2 FARRINGTON, Public Domain

With memories of colonization still felt in the Philippines today, moving forward, the United States should make a concerted effort to approach any treaties, agreements, or negotiations with the Philippines as an interaction between two independent countries. The United States would benefit from emphasizing Philippine independence, and respecting the country’s movement toward independence. In terms of future military agreements, should the United States propose a new military partnership, they need to frame it as partnership between equals. The United States cannot achieve its military goals in the South Pacific without the cooperation of the Philippines, and the Philippines has benefitted from U.S. military presence in keeping China’s naval presence in the South China Sea at bay as well as helping with counterterrorism efforts in the country’s southern islands. By understanding the Philippines master narrative of independence, the United States can better communicate with their oldest ally in Asia.

CREDIT: Photo by U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Peter Reft

 

 Works Cited

Bieber, Florian. “Is Nationalism on the Rise? Assessing Global Trends.” Ethnopolitics, vol. 17, no. 5, 2018, pp. 519–540., doi:10.1080/17449057.2018.1532633.

Goodall, Jr, H.L., and Steven R. Corman. “What Is a Master Narrative.” Master Narratives of Islamist Extremism, by J. Halverson, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015, pp. 1–9.

Sanger, David E. “Philippines Orders U.S. to Leave Strategic Navy Base at Subic Bay.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 28 Dec. 1991, www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/world/philippines-orders-us-to-leave-strategic-navy-base-at-subic-bay.html.

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.

President Donald Trump’s impeachment could ruin U.S. influence in Ukraine—but it won’t. Here’s why.

By Joli McSherry, MA Global Communication, ’20

On July 25, 2019, President Donald Trump had a good, normal call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The rest—forgive the cliché—is now history. We know that this call led to the President Trump’s eventual impeachment and acquittal, which is both a cause and a symptom of the continued fracturing of the American public and political institutions. We already know the impact on the American public, but what about the impact America’s very important strategic partner in Eastern Europe and our characteristically friendly relationship with its people? Could this be a dangerous blow to the relationship? Fortunately, President Trump does not have to be, nor should he be, the sole diplomatic messenger. And the United States, dealing with its own conflicting national narrative as its public becomes more deeply divided, is at an advantage: Ukrainians understand what it is like to call a country that is fractured by two opposite narratives home.

As a young country sharing a long history with its aggressor, Ukraine deals with dual competing narratives for the same stories and events. One is the pro-Ukrainian, pro-West narrative, which emphasizes a shared Ukrainian fight for freedom, as well as the drive to stand against and overcome oppression. This narrative is woven into prominent figures and events, such as nationalist revolutionaries Stepan Bandera and Ivan Mazepa, and the devastating Holodomor genocide where Ukrainians were starved out by the Soviet Union. However, take those same events and one can see the pro-Russia, anti-West narrative: Ukraine and Russia’s shared history is to be honored through their bond, and those who reject the bond (as Bandera and Mazepa did) are defectors and traitors.

 

The narrative used by the U.S. diplomatic system focuses, obviously, on reaching those pro-West Ukrainians who favor their own democratic state, free from Russian meddling. Despite Trump’s own words and behaviors, Ukrainians who are sympathetic to European integration will be particularly responsive to the messages that continue to be put forth by a plurality of the U.S. government and population, working to see its own unrelenting desire for freedom, independence, and democracy overcome its internal ills. This resonates with the Ukrainian master narrative of overcoming oppression. All the U.S. diplomatic system must do to avoid endangering relations with the Ukrainians is continue to hold steady and show Ukrainians that nothing in the context of the relationship has changed. As far as public influence goes, the golden rule of successful public diplomacy is that it must be rooted in truth. The United States, casting an inconsistent president aside, undoubtedly has that covered.

While U.S. soft power has been on a steady decline since President Trump’s 2016 election, the United States has long held influence on Ukrainian public opinion, particularly when the choice at hand is America vs. Russia (a 2019 International Republican Institute public opinion survey gives a detailed picture of Ukrainians’ opinions of the two). This is in large part because the United States invested early emphasizing the role it can play in fulfilling the fledgling Eastern European country’s desire for freedom and democracy. The United States has continued to firmly promote a narrative of support and shared objectives with Ukraine even during times of turmoil; the pithy “Crimea is Ukraine” refrain is a great example. It has then backed these messages up by conducting a robust public diplomacy effort connecting with and engaging the Ukrainian people, and targeting some of the most pressing issues Ukrainians face, like an eager civil society and independent media, both desperate for more resources to foster their own fight to maintain freedom and stability.

 

In short, the United States has long talked the talk and walked the walk. Since Ukraine broke free from the Soviet Union, the United States has stood behind the strongest and most effective narrative that a freshly post-Soviet state with often insurmountable historical ties to Russia can expect to have: the right to an independent, democratic Ukraine. This would take a while to undo. Contemporarily, as America struggles to get its own domestic narratives in order in a Trump world, the use of this narrative to advance foreign policy goals in Ukraine has not waivered. The “partners in freedom and democracy” narrative holds strong, even as both countries deal with the calamities caused by President Trump. As the president’s own drama unfolded, the U.S. State Department faithfully told Ukrainians: Ukraine is so important to us; we share your values of freedom and progress; we have a shared adversary; and we will not let that enemy impinge on your right to a secure, democratic, and prosperous state.

While there is concern over a growing distance between Ukrainians and the United States in light of recent events, thanks to the decision to not stray from the strong U.S. narrative promoting friendship and cooperation among a shared goal between the two states and their people, the Ukrainian peoples’ disillusionment with America will likely not last. Despite some political decisions that left Ukrainians questioning America’s commitment, Ukraine holds an identity narrative that leaves it feeling something of an underdog truly in need of support in its fight to maintain their right to exist in the manner it feels it deserve. The country needs support, and the U.S. has positioned itself to still spread the idea its strong and unwavering support despite any of its own internal ills. In fact, those ills may help the cause—Ukrainians know well what it is like to be fractured by an internal divide. The fact that the U.S. continues to maintain its commitment despite this can only mean positive things for the relationship going forward.

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.

Challenges and Vulnerabilities for Public Diplomacy in Guatemala

By Halea Kerr-Layton, MA Global Communication ’21

 

Guatemala, the Central American country home to roughly 17 million people has unique vulnerabilities and challenges for public diplomacy presented by the competing narratives, identities, and experiences of its population.  Specifically, between the indigenous and the non-indigenous, or Ladino, population. The inequality, repression and lack of political representation for the indigenous population presents a particularly unique environment that fans unrest and lends itself to disinformation. Through a brief examination of some of these narratives and realities, these vulnerabilities and challenges will be examined.

An indigenous woman rests along a street. Antigua, Guatemala, 2006, d’Layne Kerr-Layton.

Two Competing Narratives

Whenever there are competing narratives or realities, there exists a vulnerability that can lead to intense polarization, susceptibility to misinformation and challenges for public diplomacy. Narratives are important socio-political forces in the world that make sense of transhistorical patterns and are deeply rooted and embedded in a particular culture.  Competing narratives represent a formidable cleavage in a society. The cultural narratives in Guatemala reveal extreme inequality and divergent realities for different portions of the population.  The World Bank describes the inequalities and divergent experiences of life in Guatemala saying, “in essence, there are “two Guatemalas, one with well-off, and one poor, one urban and one rural, one Ladino and one Indigenous with large gaps in both social and economic outcomes.” This history of inequality, racism, and discrimination against indigenous peoples in Guatemala constitutes a master narrative that presents a stark vulnerability for public diplomacy in Guatemala.

A Mayan man sells his artwork on the street. Antigua, Guatemala, 2006, d’Layne Kerr-Layton.

 

The Maya

The indigenous population in Guatemala, most of whom are Maya, is estimated to comprise roughly 60% of the country’s total population. Despite making up the majority of the population, the Mayan population faces extreme discrimination, repression, lack of political representation and access to resources such as housing and education. Even statistics about the Mayan population are contested as inaccurate due to the inability for many indigenous peoples to participate in data collection. Experts continually criticize the official census as underreporting indigenous inhabitants. The fact that many of the Maya are disadvantaged and are not officially counted, and therefore remain unrecognized by the government, demonstrates a rift between identity narratives in Guatemala.

Child with mother at marketplace. Guatemala, 2006, d’Layne Kerr-Layton.

War and Repression

The lasting trauma left by domestic wars, indigenous suppression and the history of colonization in Guatemala and much of Central and South America, has implications for successful public diplomacy. Wars create enduring cultural memories and privilege the victors for future governance decisions. Most recently, the Civil War (1960-1996) left legacies of pain, exclusion, and division in Guatemala between the Ladino and the indigenous populations. The ruling military junta at the time committed acts of terror and genocide against the Maya communities in part to destroy the cultural values that ensured cohesion and collective action in Mayan communities.” This narrative of Mayan oppression and slaughter goes back to colonization and remains strong to this day.  In 2018, 26 members of mostly indigenous campesino organizations were killed with almost no acknowledgement or atonement from the government.  Guatemala is considered by human rights activists to be on the verge of a human-rights catastrophe and as desperation for justice mounts, disinformation campaigns are more likely to be successful.

Mayan woman in traditional dress in marketplace. Guatemala, 2006, d’Layne Kerr-Layton.

Poverty and Inequality

Guatemala suffers from persistently high poverty and inequality with the indigenous peoples continuously more disadvantaged.  In 2016, Guatemala ranked as the number 1 most unequal country in Central America and was included in the world’s top ten most unequal countries. While poverty in the country is growing as a whole, the indigenous Mayan population is disproportionately poor in comparison with non-indigeous populations with over 75% of the ingidengous population living in poverty. Geographically, poverty is predominant in rural areas, primarily inhabited by indigenous peoples with 81% of those living in poverty and 91% of those living in extreme poverty living in the countryside.  This physical divide between populations presents a vulnerability to disinformation as narratives about different socio-economic realities will be more distant and less verifiable.

 

A set of homes in rural Guatemala. Guatemala, 2006, d’Layne Kerr-Layton.

Representation and Identity

Social and political exclusion of the indigenous population is a challenge to public diplomacy efforts. Traditional diplomacy often happens at the top level of governments between elected officials and representatives. Political representation for indigenous Guatemalans remains extremely low, which makes diplomacy efforts to include indigenous voices difficult, but vital. The indigenous population has never gained more than 13% of the total seats in Congress. Political participation of indigenous peoples is lower than among non-indigenous populations due to challenges “including language barriers in the election process, lack of information on where the votes should be cast, political clientelism, and even violence.” The increasingly popular theory of identitarian epistemology claims that a specific identity group cannot acquire the knowledge of another, and argues that each identity group has unique rights that pertain to their exclusive body of knowledge. Furthermore, this theory argues that legitimate representation is an act on behalf of a group that the representative is themselves a part of. Therefore, without political participation and representation of indigenous Guatemalans, the government may be deemed illegitimate by some. Therefore, in order to combat disinformation, diplomatic efforts must work to engage with the indigenous population.

Funeral procession in a rural village. Guatemala, 2006, d’Layne Kerr-Layton.

Implications:

These vulnerabilities and challenges to diplomacy are not unique to Guatemala and in fact have implications for larger narratives of shared histories of colonization, racism and inequality that disadvantage indigenous populations. Therefore similar vulnerabilities are applicable by extension to much of South and Central America. These sociological vulnerabilities can be exploited and used for disinformation campaigns. In countries such as Guatemala, with a history of colonization, competing identity narratives and extreme sociological differences, disinformation campaigns will be able to tap into existing narratives about oppressors, victims, inequality and representation.

Antigua, Guatemala, 2006, d’Layne Kerr-Layton

 

> The author has also written Master Narratives and Their Divergent Interpretations: Challenges and Vulnerabilities for Public Diplomacy in Guatemala.

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.