Blogs – Rising Powers Initiative

India’s Path out of Learning Poverty: Crooked or Smooth?

सुखार्थिन: कुतो विद्या विद्यार्थिन: कुतो: सुखम् ।

सुखार्थी वा त्यजेत् विद्यां विद्यार्थी वा त्यजेत् सुखम् ।।

The above lines represent a couplet in Sanskrit. Were you able to read it? Were you able to comprehend it?

Probably not!

Let’s try another one:

Sukharthinah kutovidya vidyarthinah kuto sukham.

Sukharthi vaa tyajet vidyam, vidyarthi vaa tyajet sukham

Now? More of us can now probably read it but still may not be able to comprehend it. Doesn’t this make you feel weird? You want to understand it, make sense of it, but you can’t!

Imagine a similar scenario, but for 10-year-old children from low and middle-income countries trying to read way simpler texts in their local language. If you can’t read and comprehend, you lose a major opportunity to learn. If you can’t read and comprehend at the right level, you end up playing catch-up forever!

As per the World Bank report: The State of Global Learning Poverty, 2022 – 6 out of every 10 ten-year-olds in low-and middle-income countries were suffering from learning poverty in 2019. The situation, as we all know, only worsened with COVID-19. Learning Poverty is defined as being unable to read and understand a short, age-appropriate text by age 10. The World Bank report states that without adequate action, the current generation of students now risks losing ~ $21 trillion in lifetime earnings in present value, or the equivalent of 17 percent of 2022’s global GDP.

The figure above shows the average percentage of 10-year-old children from each geographic region, who face learning poverty

Source: State of Global Learning Poverty, Update 2022

The figure above shows the average percentage of 10-year-old children from each geographic region, who face learning poverty [5]. The inequality is evident. While all countries face an increase post-pandemic, most developing regions face a sizeable gap (>50%) from their developed counterparts. Globally, countries are working towards respective national targets to achieve a 50% reduction in average global learning poverty by 2030 (SDG 4).

Through this blog, I want to highlight India’s recent education policy reforms that align with SDG 4 and the implementation challenges. According to the World Bank report, India’s learning poverty rate was at 56.1% pre-pandemic. According to the Annual Status of Education Report 2022, 80% of students in Grade 3 in schools in rural India could not read a Grade 2 text and 74% of students in Grade 3 in schools in rural India could not do simple subtraction.

In the last five years, India has undertaken two major educational policy initiatives – National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, and Nipun Bharat Mission 2021 with a focus on foundational literacy and numeracy. The NEP 2020 was a much-awaited reformation in the form of umbrella policy guidelines for education at all levels in India. It specifically highlighted that achieving Foundational Literacy and Numeracy (FLN) by all students by Grade 3 will be accorded the highest priority. Calling upon an existing infrastructure of primary schools and public early childhood care centers (Anganwadi centers) in India the policy set out a goal to “achieve universal quality pre-school education, as soon as possible, no later than 2030”. As a follow-up on NEP 2020, the Ministry of Education, India launched the national mission on FLN – NIPUN (National Initiative for Proficiency in Reading with Understanding and Numeracy) Bharat in 2021. “Nipun” also doubles as a Hindi word that means ‘expert’ or ‘qualified’. The NIPUN Bharat mission, in other words, envisions a qualified India! It lays down priorities and actionable agendas for states/union territories to attain universal FLN by 2025 along with close tracking and monitoring of the progress.

In the past two years of such increased focus on FLN, India has seen several encouraging success stories. As per an article by Central Square Foundation (a leading non-profit in the education sector in India that actively collaborates with local district and state governments for implementation of FLN initiatives), the initiative has shown promising developments in a few states like Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Assam. For example, the CSF blog [7] discussed how a 60-day targeted FLN program in the Pune district in India resulted in an 8% increase in the students moving from intermediate to advanced proficiency in FLN competencies. Several such local and national initiatives are being implemented to bring together common resources for various stakeholders – school authorities, government officers, parents, and teachers/facilitators. At the national level, DIKSHA [8], an open-resource web portal provides useful standardized resources in terms of teacher training modules, teaching-learning material for pre-school and primary school kids, and community engagement modules.

Having said that, one must bear in mind that the implementation of the mission is a state government responsibility. Therefore, there is a lot of heterogeneity in the way different states are approaching the mission. The policy implementation must be monitored regularly at the center, otherwise, the state-wide heterogeneity may persist, and India may only reduce overall learning poverty and not the learning inequality!

Regular data and monitoring are important to inform and improve any policy implementation process. In a first-of-its-kind initiative, a large-scale Foundational Learning Study (covering 86000 students pan India) was conducted by the National Council of Education Research and Training, India in collaboration with UNICEF, in March 2022 to collect baseline data for the mission and set benchmark measures to compare progress with global proficiency levels in reading and numeracy.

The above graph depicts the baseline distribution of performance in reading (prepared by the author) using data from the large-scale benchmarking survey.

Source: Foundational Learning Study, 2022

The above graph depicts the baseline distribution of performance in reading (prepared by the author) using data from the large-scale benchmarking survey. The survey was conducted in 20 languages and hence is not representative of any state’s performance. The graph shows that roughly 50-55% of students are below the Global minimum proficiency level in reading, on average. We can see that performance in some languages is slightly better than others, and hence there is scope of learning across regions to enhance the improvement in foundational literacy and numeracy.

If such data were collected and published year-on-year, it would be interesting to measure the interim success of the mission. While the full data set is not available on any open web-source, the report suggests efficient benchmarking across languages, which would facilitate scientific impact evaluation after the policy has been completely implemented. Overall, a more transparent data collection and reporting process can help foster more research around the feasibility of the mission and hold the stakeholders accountable.

Lastly, to speed up the implementation process there is a need for buy-in from local bodies on the importance of the policy and effective collaboration across states and non-for-profits to re-use existing material and prevent re-inventing the wheel. The government portal [8] provides useful standardized resources in terms of teacher training modules, teaching learning material for pre-school and primary school kids and community engagement modules. But there is a need to replicate the material in local languages and increase engagement with the resources through adequate publicity.

In a survey of 450 respondents in a district in Bihar, India
only 40% of the early childhood care practitioners
report that they know about/have heard of the Nipun Bharat mission!

While I spent my summer (2023) surveying some early childhood caretakers/teachers in a district in Bihar (for a different project), I was curious to measure the extent to which stakeholders at the local community level know about this national mission. I was surveying Anganwadi workers, who cater to 3–6-year-old children in the form of nutrition and pre-school education. It is natural to expect them to be informed about this national mission which directly relates to their beneficiary group. I was taken by surprise when I found out that of 450 respondents, only 40% of these early childhood caretakers report having heard about the Nipun Bharat mission!

Since government schools do not usually accommodate students younger than 6 years, and not all parents can afford private pre-schools, there is a big opportunity and responsibility to harness the existing public early childhood infrastructure in India (Anganwadi system) to make children school-ready as they embark on their journey to literacy.

Thus, while the initial planning for the mission has been powerful there is a need for a big push towards the execution of the policy mandates and tracking whether milestones are being achieved timely. Alongside collaboration on the educational resources, propagation of its availability at the rural community level, with stronger engagement among non-profits and local government bodies is crucial to make this mission a reality by 2025.

And now, I would like to leave you with the translated meaning of the Sanskrit couplet –

How can he who is after comforts have knowledge? How can he who seeks knowledge have comforts? Either one seeking comforts must give up knowledge or one seeking knowledge will have to give up comforts.

Thank you for reading!

Bio: Prerna Dokania is a PhD candidate in Economics at the George Washington University, Washington DC. She is a Sigur Center Summer 2023 Research Fellow. To learn more about her, visit her website: https://sites.google.com/view/prernadokania/home.

Sources used:

[1] NEP 2020: https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/NEP_Final_English_0.pdf

[2] ASER: Report 2022

[3] NIPUN Bharat website: https://nipunbharat.education.gov.in/index.aspx

[4] Ministry of Education: Foundational Learning Study, 2022

[5] WORLD BANK: The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update

[6] Central Square Foundation website: https://www.centralsquarefoundation.org/fln

[7] Central Square Foundation: Blog 1

[8] DIKSHA portal: https://diksha.gov.in/fln.html

[9] Author’s SIGUR CENTER SUMMER FIELD RESEARCH Observations

Assessing Thailand’s New Government’s Climate Policies

Thailand’s new Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin, has assertively announced active climate policies on both national and international stages, notably in his inaugural speech to Parliament and at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit in September 2023. The country has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and targets net zero by 2065. These goals are to be realized primarily through the enhancement of carbon pricing policies and the execution of the National Energy Plan to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. But Thailand has frequently made strong pledges on combatting climate change before. It is thus worth taking a closer look at the policy tools it intends to use, and what are some of the challenges they face.

Thailand’s new Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin attending the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit

Figure 1: Thailand’s new Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin attending the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit (Source: Thairath)

Strengthening Carbon Pricing Instruments

Carbon pricing is an increasingly popular tool to control carbon emissions. But will they work in Thailand?

Like many other countries, Thailand’s primary strategy to address climate change employs market-based approaches through carbon pricing, a focus that will be further intensified by the new government. Carbon pricing operates by incorporating the cost of the environmental damage from carbon emissions into the prices of goods and services that use carbon. When prices reflect only the costs to suppliers and not to the planet, we emit more carbon than the planet can sustain. By making carbon emissions more expensive, carbon pricing incentivizes firms to seek alternative energy sources and discourages consumers from using dirty energy.

Thailand has operated a voluntary carbon crediting program since 2016. While the country has not yet set the amount of carbon that can be emitted, a carbon market and crediting system were launched to encourage domestic firms wishing to “go greener” to voluntarily offset their emissions by purchasing carbon credits from projects certified by Thailand’s Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO). The average price of carbon credit per ton has risen by approximately 40% within 6 years, with a total carbon credit trading volume of 1.92 million tons of CO2 equivalent. Many Thai analysts anticipate the price will continue to ascend further, especially if the country’s carbon crediting standard can align with international standards, a goal the new government is aspiring to achieve. Achieving this alignment would permit international firms to acquire carbon credits from projects certified by Thailand, thereby unlocking international demand within Thailand’s carbon market. Additionally, the country has been developing a cap-and-trade scheme to complement the carbon crediting system and is considering implementing a carbon tax in specific industrial sectors. This represents a significant advancement compared to other ASEAN countries; only Singapore has fully enacted a regulatory carbon pricing policy instrument, namely, a carbon tax.

Despite seemingly proactive policy actions and efforts related to carbon pricing, the tangible results in emission reductions seem uncertain at best. This is for three reasons. First, the carbon market price in Thailand is still significantly underpriced. It sits at approximately USD 3 per ton, significantly below the globally recommended carbon price of at least USD 75 per ton—the price deemed necessary to reduce emissions sufficiently to keep the temperature increase below 2°C.

Second, doubts persist regarding whether Thailand can align its methods for measuring and verifying carbon emissions with international standards. Currently, international carbon credit standards like those from Verra do not recognize Thailand’s standards. Moreover, TGO itself has become more reluctant to synchronize the country’s standards with Verra, especially after the controversy arose around the company’s overstatements of actual achieved carbon offsetting levels. Irrespective of the reasons, the inability to link Thailand’s crediting standards to international ones could hinder the anticipated rise in carbon prices, contrary to the expectations of Thai analysts. The ensuing low carbon prices may not effectively incentivize firms to reduce emissions, even with the implementation of a cap-and-trade scheme.

Third, the system of carbon credits – when they are poorly managed – can lead to detrimental effects on host communities where carbon credit projects are located. In many developing nations like Thailand, fostering emissions reductions involves not only limiting carbon emissions but also promoting forest restoration and planting. This approach is grounded in the principle that afforestation can capture a portion of emitted carbon, reducing overall emissions. When such a project receives certification from the TGO, the resultant credits can be sold by the host community as compensation. However, despite contributing the majority of the labor and care, community members reported receiving compensation from only 20 percent of the tradable credits. These are communities whose livelihoods are intertwined with both preserving and accessing resources in forest. Yet, they have been barred from utilizing resources from the forest – such as firewood or mushrooms, causing economic hardship and substantial alterations to their way of life. This situation is further exacerbated by the fact that utilizing such products does not detrimentally impact forest growth.

Community Members Sharing their Experiences and Opinions on Carbon Credits

Figure 2: (Upper) Mangroves Planted for Carbon Credits (Source: Thailand’s Department of Marine and Coastal Resources); (Lower) Community Members Sharing their Experiences and Opinions on Carbon Credits (Source: The Netizen.Plus).

National Energy Plan: Moving Towards Clean Energy?

Aside from carbon pricing, there is a second prong to the Thai government’s plan to reduce carbon emissions, the new National Energy Plan (NEP). While carbon pricing adopts a more market-based approach, the NEP involves more direct government intervention through a roadmap to help industries transition from carbon-based energy to cleaner energy solutions. The impending plan is poised to encompass policy initiatives like the utility green tariff, designed to shift the country’s energy mix away from coal. Under this initiative, consumers who opt into utility green tariffs may pay a premium to ensure that their electricity consumption is matched with cleaner energy. The additional cost paid by the consumers usually goes toward supporting the development of cleaner energy projects, although the details are still unclear in Thailand’s case. The NEP seems particularly promising because the energy sector accounts for nearly 60 percent of Thailand’s total emissions.

However, upon closer inspection, the emphasis of these proposed policies leans towards transitioning from coal to fossil gas, rather than embracing a more substantial reliance on renewable energy sources. Despite the combustion of natural gas emitting 50-60 percent less CO2 than coal, investing in natural gas infrastructure could impose obstacles in meeting climate targets due to the risks of fossil lock-in and consequent delays in adopting renewable energy. Moreover, the long-term impact on emissions reduction is further clouded by increasing evidence suggesting that the advantages of natural gas as a bridge between coal and renewable energy are often overstated, and the economic risks inherent in investing in natural gas are significant.

Despite the country’s strong pledges on climate mitigation, the main policies currently in play make it highly unlikely that the climate goals will be materialized, not to mention the possible adverse impacts on other social dimensions. This trajectory becomes even more precarious considering the new Prime Minister’s recent proposition for Thailand to serve as the “central hub” for the final phase of the fossil fuel car industry, ostensibly to bolster the country’s industry supply chain, which implies a diminished commitment to addressing the issue.

Bio: Jittip Mongkolnchaiarunya is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the George Washington University, Washington DC. She is a Sigur Center Summer 2023 Research Fellow. To learn more about her, visit her website: https://jittipm.wixsite.com/jittipm.

Urban Slum Education in Indonesia: Calling for Adopting a Child-Rights Based Approach

Indonesia’s education has been lauded for its significant progress. The collective efforts of decentralized and central governments on education led to over 10 million children’s school enrollments since 2002 with roughly equal gender parity in education. The statistics of 2022 showcased such progress that almost all Indonesian children are enrolled in primary education (97.78%) and a considerable number are enrolled at lower secondary level (80.82%).

The glowing feats however conceal the enduring social issue of Indonesia: education inequality of economically underprivileged children living in urban slums (aka. informal settlements). The recent report by the University of Indonesia’s Center on Child Protection and Wellbeing reveals that the school completion rate among urban slum children is lower than the average school completion rate of Indonesian students. The gap between slum and non-slum children is especially more pronounced in the upper secondary level at 10.8%.

The enduring gap therefore shows that effort-making for ensuring equal and equitable education for urban slum children remains imperative in Indonesia, and the issue is even more critical at present than before due to growing urbanization. With the rapid pace of urbanization, Indonesia has been experiencing the expansion of urban poverty and the rise of the urban slum population who live alongside train tracks, riverbanks, and canals. About 38.2% of urban slum households have children, and such a large number of urban slum children suggests that the education experiences of those children must be re-examined to ensure their quality and equal education opportunities. Figure 1. Slum communities under the overpass in Jakarta

Figure 1. Slum communities under the overpass in Jakarta

Government’s Policy Approaches and Limitations

It is important to note that the Indonesian government’s attention, shown by politicians’ speeches and funding schemes, has heavily focused on sending children to school. However, needless to say, school-going is not equivalent to learning, and it does not guarantee the happiness of school-going children.

A. Indonesia Smart Card Program. To improve low-income children’s access to school, the Indonesian government has granted considerable financial aid, but slum children’s academic motivation and continuity of schooling were neglected in the process. The financial aid is called Indonesia Smart Card (KIP), which is one of the flagship programs launched under President Jokowi in 2014. The government has issued and distributed the cards to children aged 6-21 in low-income households, supporting them to use the money loaded to use it for school supplies (e.g., books, school uniforms), transportation costs, and more. The fundamental aim of the program has been to encourage low-income school-aged children to go to school and/or continue schooling until the completion of their high school education.

In the country’s capital city, Jakarta, alone, approximately 675,000 children were the recipients of the Jakarta-run Smart Card program this year. While the figure alludes to a considerable number of students benefitting from the program, the substantial impact is not clear due to problems, including numerous misuse cases (e.g., spending at shopping malls, gas stations, and karaoke) and out-of-school children’s use of money for non-education purposes. Referring to these loopholes of the financial program, Jakarta’s former governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama criticized the program as waste.

Figure 2. Indonesia Smart Card

Figure 2. Indonesia Smart Card (Mujab, 2020)

B. Rusunawa: Public Rental Housing Policy. Another policy that the Indonesian government implemented was for urban slum households’ better living conditions and sustainable cities, which however further interrupted children’s schooling. Aligned with the global commitment to Sustainable Development Goal 11 (i.e., Sustainable cities and communities), the government implemented a slum upgrading and prevention policy, called Kota Tanpa Kumuh (“City without Slum”) in 2007, which aimed at slum eradication by demolishing slum houses and instead building public low-cost flats (rusunawa) for urban slum dwellers.

However, the policy negatively affected slum children in regard to their mental health and schooling since it neglected children’s education in consideration. Slum households, including children, were forcefully evicted (often by military force) in the process of building rusunawa, which posed significant stress to slum children. When it comes to education, living in rusunawa deterred children’s learning since households had to bear monthly rent fees (IDR 250,000, or USD 16.75), which was an additional economic burden for them to support their children’s education costs. In addition, because of their forced relocation, children had to experience sudden parting from their friends and neighbors. Children also had to commute longer distances and hours from their new place to schools. In Jakarta, at the end of 2014, this public housing policy with little advantage to children’s education was discontinued due to a lack of fiscal support from its city council.

Rusunawa in Jakarta

Figure 3. Rusunawa in Jakarta (Jakarta Review, 2018)

Notably, each policy case shows that the government’s focus has exclusively been associated with children’s access to school education and lack of consideration for children’s education, respectively. Moreover, neither policy paid attention to children’s socio-emotional well-being. This raises a critical need to examine the actual learning experiences of slum children at school.

Looking Closer the Slum Children’s Schooling Experiences

With its insufficient attention to the socio-emotional aspect, the current policy approach has perpetuated a non-inclusive and non-welcoming school climate towards slum children. It is a concerning situation that many slum children commonly experience discrimination, bullying, and exclusion in schools. Slum children are often the target of teasing, bullying, physical abuse, and rumors by their non-slum peers due to their poor living conditions, all of which demotivate slum children and even drive them to drop out of school. Their feeling of distress in school is often aggravated by teachers’ nonchalant attitudes towards slum children’s experience of bullying.

It can be interpreted that such a negative classroom climate tied with slum children’s lack of relationships with peers and teachers nullifies the aforementioned government’s efforts for slum children, which has entailed their academic demotivation, unhappiness, and school dropout.

Shifting the Policy Discourse to Child Rights-Based for Slum Children’s Well-being at School

If so, what should we focus on to actually promote slum children’s equal and equitable education? Greater attention must be given to ensure a positive school climate that is supportive and safe for children’s learning. Indeed, such an environment is the foundation as well as an enabler that could lead slum children to continue their schooling with increased academic motivation, a sense of belonging, and a feeling of being valued.

This means that the current policy approach should look beyond providing material/physical support, to promote slum children’s well-being and happiness in their school experience. In order to do so, the policy discourse should be shifted to be child rights-based.

It is the deficit view that has been permeated with the current policies, in which slum children’s education is considered as deprivations, problems, and obstacles that need to be addressed and fixed through access to schools and secure housing. The deficit view has justified and emerged the government’s financial aid and construction of a public rental house.

However, for slum children’s well-being and happiness in their long-term process of school education, the policy discourse should recall and include the core ideas of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) of 1989, particularly Article 29 (a):

“States Parties agree that the education of the child shall be directed to the development of the child’s personality, talents and mental and physical abilities to their fullest potential.”

The statement therefore calls for the Indonesian government’s child rights-based approach, reminding of its responsibility to focus on promoting education support that aligns with the best interests of the child. Based on this approach, the Indonesian government should prioritize providing holistic and whole-school support to foster a supportive school environment, ensuring slum children’s equal education opportunities, and enhancing their academic and socio-emotional skills to their fullest potential.

Then, what are some practical ways that the government could implement for child rights-based approach? Some practical strategies include organizing in-class anti-bullying workshops targeting both teachers and students, establishing community-based activities for a child-friendly school environment with mutual care, and implementing mentorship programs between university students and slum children to boost the latter’s academic motivation.

Taking all these into account, what should be kept in mind is: It is the Indonesian government’s utmost duty to prioritize the long-term effects and growth of slum children in pursuit of the child rights-based approach, which ultimately could lead them to become active members of Indonesian society with their full potentials.

By InJung Cho, Sigur Center Summer 2023 Field Research Grant Fellow. Cho is a Ph.D. student in Education at George Washington University. Cho researches educational inequality and learner identity of children in urban slums of Jakarta, Indonesia.

The Fascinating History and Legacy of Kai Tak Airport in Hong Kong

Kai Tak Airport, located in the Kowloon region, holds a special place in aviation history. Its distinctive runway and the infamous “Kai Tak Heart Attack” landing approach made it one of the world’s most challenging airports.

The Birth of a Legend

Kai Tak Airport evolved from a modest British Royal Air Force airstrip in the 1920s to a bustling commercial airport around the 1930s. It experienced relentless expansion, even during World War II (WWII) when it primarily served as a military base. After WWII, Kai Tak underwent further expansion and modernization to meet the growing demand for air travel. Its famous single runway (Runway 13/31) was extended into Victoria Harbour by reclaiming land, posing a unique challenge for pilots and air traffic controllers.

The “Kai Tak Heart Attack” Approach

What made Kai Tak Airport truly legendary was its iconic single runway (Runway 13/31). This runway required pilots to navigate a series of sharp turns and descents while avoiding tall buildings and mountainous terrain. Pilots usually had to make a 47-degree turn – known as the “Checkerboard Turn” – to land safely. Pilots had to display their finest skills to execute this “Kai Tak Heart Attack” approach, and there was no room for error.

Legacy and Closure

Over several decades, Kai Tak Airport played a pivotal role in Hong Kong’s development as a tourist destination and an international business hub. However, as the demand for air travel continued to grow, Kai Tak faced several challenges, including noise concerns in densely populated urban areas and very limited expansion options.

In July 1998, after serving Hong Kong for over six decades, Kai Tak Airport was closed, marking the end of an era. Prior to its closure, Kai Tak Airport had the third-largest volume of passengers and the largest freight volume in the world. The operations of air transportation were relocated to the newly built Hong Kong International Airport on Lantau Island, which offers more extensive runways, 24-hour operation, and modern facilities.

Today, the former airport runway and airport grounds of Kai Tak have been transformed into a vibrant urban district known as Kai Tak Development (KTD), featuring residential, commercial, and recreational spaces. This development has preserved some of the airport’s history and integrated it into the fabric of the neighborhood. The metro station exits still showcase the fascinating history of Hong Kong (see the picture taken from the Kai Tak metro station).

A picture of the Kai Tak Airport from an aerial view

Conclusion

Kai Tak Airport remains a legendary icon in the world of aviation, remembered for its unique challenges and captivating approach. One urban policy researcher at George Washington University has been conducting a research project surrounding the change in urban dynamics, building structure, and associated socioeconomic outcomes after the airport’s closure. This specific case of relocating an urban center-based airport can provide very interesting lessons and experiences for cities with airports located in densely populated city centers.

Bio: Jingwen Zheng is a PhD candidate in Public Policy and Administration at the George Washington University, Washington DC. She is a Sigur Center Summer 2023 Research Fellow

The Contagion of Hope: Lighting up Thai Democracy in the Dark

Fighting for democracy under Thailand’s military regime is more than an election result. It is in the mobilization of Thai people to protect their ballots across the country.

The recent election results marked a historic moment in Thailand. The victory of the opposition parties signals a desire for a return to democracy. Yet, this is not the first time that the opposition parties have won a majority of votes while under military rule. But the prior election results in 2019 were overridden by the military government. Observers are cautious about celebrating too soon.

Thai people, however, are not holding their breath. It is not just the results that are significant. Unlike the cynicism that accompanied the 2019 election, there is a groundswell of hope among Thai people. It is this kindred hope, of which the election result is an important symptom, that is the real victory of this election.

A Dark Precedent

The 2019 election was a dark moment in Thailand. It was the first election since the military coup of 2014. Even though the opposition party won a majority, the results were marred by questions of electoral fraud. Even as Thai people watched the election results reported live on TV, votes would suddenly disappear right before their eyes. There would be blackouts. After the power returned, vote tallies would be changed dramatically. The voting results in the South disappeared entirely and were left unreported until the next day. The Election Commission (EC) delayed announcing the final results without any justification. Three months after the election, they also blatantly admitted that they forgot to include votes from those who cast their ballots in advance of election day.

These scandals ushered in a malaise and a deep feeling of futility: what was the point of voting if the results were to be staged anyways? More than 1.3 million people signed the online petition via change.org to impeach the EC. The online petition, however, did not lead to anything tangible. People were upset but felt hopeless to bring about changes under the military regime. A Graph Showing a Fluctuation of Vote Counts Reported in 14 Hours

Photo 1: A Graph Showing a Fluctuation of Vote Counts Reported in 14 Hours, Source: iLaw

Organizing Against Fraud

Fast forward to the present and malaise has been replaced with an upbeat optimism. Thai people turned out to vote in record numbers. But this was not accomplished overnight.

Right after the 2019 election, civil society groups began planning their next move. They took months to learn the logistics behind how votes are tallied from each polling station to the central system, how frauds could occur, and the lessons learned from the previous election. One of the problems they found was that the EC never digitalized the results from polling stations, making it difficult for the public to verify the final results. From this, Vote62 – a network of NGOs, social-tech companies, and media agencies – created a system to crowdsource real-time ballot-counting. Half a year before the 2023 elections, they began campaigning to recruit 100,000 volunteers to monitor vote-counting at just as many polling stations. The hope was that the presence of people at the polling stations would deter fraud and provide a potential source of verification if any irregularities occurred.

This was easier said than done. The campaign to recruit volunteers was a long and arduous process. Thai people were unfamiliar with what election-monitoring even was. Civil society groups campaigned in more than 350 events in six months. They trained volunteers how to differentiate a valid ballot from a voided one, what actions to monitor, how to take photos of the voting results to upload in the crowdsourcing system of Vote62.

Election Monitoring in Action

Photo 2: Election Monitoring in Action

The organizers never actually believed that Vote62 could obtain their target of 100,000 volunteers. The day before the election, the number of registered volunteers was only just above 30,000. They were not even sure if their plan would work. “We just knew that we had to do something,” said one of the organizers. But hope builds its own momentum. Their campaign and video-training spread organically, from people on the street, social media influencers, to TV coverage. What happened on the election day went far beyond their expectations.

Turning up and turning out

On the election day of May 14, Vote62 received almost 500,000 photos of vote tallies submitted by Thai people nationwide. Their webpage reported 4.2 million views. It is still unknown exactly how many volunteers there were, but it definitely exceeded the minimum 100,000.

At the polling stations, volunteers begot more volunteers. Voters who had not heard of Vote62 stuck around after the ballot closed to join in the election-monitoring. Some stood for 4 hours in the rain. Despite not knowing each other before, a spirit of camaraderie quickly emerged: people organized themselves to share their tasks, food, and mosquito repellent with each other.

People Standing in the Rain to Monitor Election.

Photo 3: People Standing in the Rain to Monitor Vote Counting.

Pre-empting the mysterious power outages during the previous election, they used their phones, torchlights, and even their car lights, to literally light-up the polling stations when they were too dark to monitor the vote-counting. They also caused EC staff to recount votes in instances of discrepancies.

Lighting up the Polling Station using Car Lights.

Photo 4: Lighting up the Polling Station using Car Lights.

Hope is Catching Fire

What is remarkable about this election is not merely the results themselves. It is not surprising that Thai people do not accept military rule lying down. But keeping the fight for democracy alive under a military regime can often feel futile. What civil society has accomplished is more than elicit greater transparency at the ballot box. They have kindred a belief in Thai people’s own political agency against the odds – the self-confidence to stand up for their own rights and to act out against power. It is a spirit that takes a life of its own and is not easily put out.

What happens next will surely be far from straightforward. However, as one of the organizers, Yingcheep Atchanont, put it: “Seeing how Thai people turned up on the election day, I feel that with or without civil society groups, Thailand is not the same country anymore.”

Bio: Jittip Mongkolnchaiarunya is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the George Washington University, Washington DC. She is a Sigur Center Summer 2023 Research Fellow. To learn more about her, visit her website: https://jittipm.wixsite.com/jittipm.