Retired Singaporean academic and diplomat Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan presented the annual Gaston Sigur Memorial Lecture April 9, 2024 on “The Future of American Policy Towards Southeast Asia.”
The speaker began by recounting a historical anecdote involving Singapore’s decision to offer the US military the use of its facilities in Southeast Asia in the late 1980s. This decision faced initial backlash from neighboring countries but was later accepted without protest in subsequent years, highlighting a shift in attitudes towards US military presence in the region.
The speech delved into the evolving perceptions of the US and China in Southeast Asia, citing a recent survey that showed a slight preference towards China over the US among ASEAN members. Despite this, concerns over China’s influence and trustworthiness were prevalent in the region. Amb. Kausikan emphasized the complexity of attitudes towards external powers and the need to understand the nuances of Southeast Asian diplomacy.
Amb. Kausikan argued that true neutrality means “knowing your own interests, taking
positions based on your own interests, and not allowing others to define your interests for you by default.” He further warned of the danger of passivity in relation to the US-China split, saying
“there is no ‘sweet spot’ to keep both the Chinese and Americans ‘happy.’”
In conclusion, the speech underscored the dynamic nature of relationships in Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific, emphasizing the importance of strategic flexibility and understanding the region’s complexity. Amb. Kausikan urged avoiding demonizing China or oversimplifying complex geopolitical dynamics. The lecture aimed to shed light on the future of American policy in Southeast Asia amidst evolving global and regional challenges.