lsuter – Page 2 – Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic

Shaky Foundations: Urban Areas built on Disappearing Permafrost

October 19, 2016October 19, 2016UncategorizedLeave a Comment

Last week, three of our distinguished researchers, Dmitry Streletskiy of The George Washington University, Valery Grebenets of Moscow State University, and Oleg Anisomov of Russia’s State Hydrological Institute, were featured in a Guardian article on the effects of thawing permafrost on Arctic cities. The Russian city of Norilsk, discussed a few weeks ago in this blog, stood at the center of attention. This time the focus was on the condition of buildings and the housing stock, which is suffering as a result of thawing permafrost. This issue is well known within Russia with Valery Tereshkov, the deputy head of the emergencies ministry in the Krasnoyarsk region, writing an article a few weeks ago stating that nearly 60% of all buildings in Norilsk have been deformed in some way. Problems caused by climate change and thawing permafrost have also been on the radar of global media, but mostly through the traditional Arctic lens of remote islands and coastal settlements being eroded, or indigenous communities having to move from their ancestral homes. The Guardian article was one of the first times that the global media examined the effects of climate change and thawing permafrost on the scale of a major Arctic city.

Figure 1: Location of Norilsk Photo Credit: BBC — Figure 1: Location of Norilsk
Photo Credit: BBC

Both in terms of population and economic output, Norilsk is one of the most important Arctic urban centers. With local engineers estimating that more than 100 residential buildings, about one-tenth of the housing stock, “have been vacated here due to damage from thawing permafrost,” this city is facing an existential crisis. Thawing permafrost under vital infrastructure is not a new problem for Arctic engineers, who have been building in the Arctic for many centuries with the largest development happening in Russia. Arctic PIRE member Valery Grebenets of Moscow State University regularly lectures his students on these issues, which include buckling roads, soil runoff killing flora and fauna, and the release of toxic substances trapped in the ice. These experts are also familiar with impact of urban areas on permafrost, such as the heat given off by buildings through their foundations. For many decades, engineers have been finding creative solutions to offset these “technogenic factors,” such as placing buildings on stilts to lessen their transfer of heat into the ground. However, none of these engineering plans took into account the effect of global warming, which has deepened the yearly permafrost thaw and significantly increased the speed of natural degradation. With the Arctic experiencing annual temperature increases that far exceed those recorded in the rest of the world, this ongoing crisis looks set to increase in scale and severity.

Figure 2: An example of the effects of thawing permafrost on a news-stand in Norilsk

Unfortunately, when infrastructure and buildings were planned, climate change was not taken seriously enough by city planners and government officials. As Arctic PIRE member Dmitry Streletskiy of The George Washington University told the Guardian, “In most cases the effect of climate change was not accounted for properly or at all, so the story is not about one building falling, even though there are examples of that, but about thousands of people living in buildings which have the potential to fall.” This is a clear example of the unfortunate lack of input that the scientific community often has in terms of planning for sustainable urban development. This issue compounded in the Arctic region due to the high cost of adapting cities to change. Our colleague Oleg Anisomov, Arctic expert and Nobel Prize holder, laments that the high north will suffer from lack of strong support in terms of government funding and strategic investment in adaptive engineering solutions. Our project aims to Promote Urban Sustainability in the Arctic hope to alter this trend and increase the voice of the scientific community in the Arctic through our upcoming Arctic Urban Sustainability Index and by increasing global attention on these important issues. Through continuous engagement and communication with policy makers, urban planners, and Arctic development planners, our scientific network will advise on the effects of climate and socio-economic changes to Arctic cities and help these important communities adapt to their rapidly changing surroundings.

Figure 3: A building is temporarily braced against collapse.

Big Oil, Big Challenges

October 14, 2016October 14, 2016UncategorizedLeave a Comment

Over the past two weeks, the Alaska Dispatch News has written several stories about the discovery of an offshore oil deposit in Smith Bay, Alaska. Smith Bay is on the North Slope of Alaska (Figure 1) which is a region historically rich with oil. However, the region has been on the decline in terms of oil production with the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System carrying only 500,000 barrels per day or about one fourth of its designed maximum capacity. The company released a statement on October 5^th, estimating the site could provide an additional “200,000 barrels per day of light, highly mobile oil.” The discovery was hailed as a game-changer by the CEO of Caelus Energy, who expects a multibillion-barrel find and the potential for an additional four-billion barrels in an adjoining deposit. With the company envisioning production on the scale of Kuparuk oil field, the second largest in Alaska, Smith Bay would be subject major development, with an initial 250 wells proposed.

Figure 1: Smith Bay on the North Slope is isolated, over 90 miles from the nearest development

After a few days of feverish excitement, realities began to set in. Development is estimated at around $8-10 billion, including $800 million for a 125-mile underwater pipeline, buried in the seabed to protect it from ice flows. Smith Bay is a very remote location, over 90 miles from the closest neighboring development with oil infrastructure. Moreover, every autumn Smith Bay plays host to migrating bowhead whales, heightening concerns among Inupiat communities who hunt the whales for subsistence and the state environmental regulators. Caelus Energy is also very worried about the future of generous tax credits granted to oil companies starting in 2013. As the two-year slump in oil prices continues to squeeze state coffers, some Alaskan legislators have called for a halt to the estimated $750 million annually in tax breaks to oil companies. Meanwhile, Caelus Energy is already owed about $100 million in tax credits for the exploration of Smith Bay. With all this uncertainty, expectations for timely and effective development of the field, hoped to be within five years, have been tempered. However, due to Smith Bay’s great potential, the development of this field is sure to be a major topic for years to come.

Figure 2: The estimated size of the Smith Bay Oil deposit relative to other Alaskan Oil Fields

Global Attention Turns Toward the North

September 29, 2016September 29, 2016UncategorizedLeave a Comment

Alaska Indigenous community leaders communicate their priorities to the U.S. delegation to the Arctic Science Ministerial. (Photo Credit: U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer 2nd Class Connie Terrell)

For many years, international dialogue about the Arctic has focused primarily on the clichés of stranded polar bears and a romanticized vision of a final frontier. In reality, the Arctic is a region that is incredibly more intricate, with complex and intertwined social, economic, and environmental systems. One goal of this project is to increase awareness of the Arctic as a complex region among policy makers and the public. This week, Washington DC played host to the first White House Arctic Science Ministerial, where representatives of the eight Arctic States, fourteen additional States, the European Union, and Arctic Indigenous communities met to assert the importance of improving collaborative science efforts in the Arctic.[i] This is welcome news to our network, which very much look forward to contributing to this growing, and vitally important, dialogue.

As with any major political event in Washington DC, coverage from the media soon followed. The Washington Post wrote a featured piece covering the warming of the Arctic climate and the growing political attention on the region.[ii] One overarching theme throughout these different press briefings and articles is the focus on international cooperation. With so many different nations and communities represented in the region, it is important to include all these actors when planning for the future.

Another big focus of the White House Ministerial and its press coverage was the need to increase observational capacities in the Arctic. Accordingly, the meeting announced the “release of a new satellite-based dataset that maps elevations across the Arctic at a resolution of 8 meters, with an expected further improvement to 2 meters next year.”[iii] The ministers also highlighted a number of new projects in the region “to record and evaluate the large volume of environmental changes being observed by the Arctic’s indigenous peoples in and around their communities.”[iv] By inviting local populations to share their knowledge of changes and opportunities to adapt, these projects aim to increase the awareness of Arctic issues and help prepare the region to take advantage of the opportunities resulting from the the rapid changes already underway.

This remotely sense digital elevation model is an example of the imagery that is being made available through increased scientific interest in the Arctic. Remote sensing in the Arctic is hindered by challenges like frequent cloud cover and a lack of sensor coverage. (Photo Credit: Paul Morin, PGC) — This digital elevation model is an example of the imagery that is being made available through increased scientific interest in the Arctic. Remote sensing in the Arctic is hindered by challenges like frequent cloud cover and a lack of sensor coverage. (Photo Credit: Paul Morin, PGC)

The same changes that affect local indigenous communities will certainly affect Arctic urban populations, and as a result will have secondary effects on the social and economic systems of the region. Our project aims to create an index to rate the progress of sustainable development plans initiated in the region. This project will help assess the progress of such developments, focused on integrating locally sourced knowledge from our vast network of international research partners. It is our hope that by building a tool to measure sustainable development plans across the region, we can encourage cooperation and mutual learning.

[i] https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/28/joint-statement-ministers

[ii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/09/28/the-arctic-is-being-utterly-transformed-and-were-just-starting-to-learn-the-consequences/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.426bf80de924

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] Ibid.

Panel Discussion at Inaugural Arctic PIRE Meeting

September 27, 2016September 27, 2016Uncategorized2 Comments

From October 20th-22nd we will be hosting the inaugural annual meeting of the Arctic PIRE team, here in Washington DC. To culminate this multi-day conference, we are proud to invite you to a panel discussion led by some of our foremost experts in Arctic Sustainability from around the world. Speakers in this panel will address topics including: social sustainability in Arctic conditions, the economic role of cities, Arctic urban planning, and the political framing of sustainability in the Arctic. A reception will follow the panel discussion, providing the public and policy-makers an opportunity to network and forge relationships with our network of international research partners. We would love to see you there!

Please RSVP at: go.gwu.edu/arcticpire

PDF of Event Flyer: conference-flyer-oct-2016

The Red River of Norilsk: How the Remoteness of the Arctic Amplifies Environmental Disasters

September 15, 2016January 18, 2017Uncategorized1 Comment

57d034d9c36188bd428b4689 — Figure 1: Discoloration of the Daldykan River Source: https://www.rt.com/viral/358561-red-river-siberia-norils

Last week the world was shocked by images of a blood red Daldykan River in central Russia (Figure 1). The cause of the unnatural coloration was the spillage of slurry over a filtration dam near the Russian city of Norilsk. The economy of Norilsk is dominated by mineral extraction and processing, with the mines and factories around the city producing 13% and 44% of the world supply for Nickel and Palladium respectively.[1] This makes Norilsk an economic powerhouse, however also gives Norilsk Nickel, the operator of the various mines around the city, a very powerful influence on the political operation of the city as well as the media.

While the spill occurred around September 5, Norilsk Nickel did not admit responsibility for the spill for nearly a week, even publishing pictures on their website of the Dalydykan River in “regular condition and show[ing] the natural color,” on September 8^th. [2] It was only after significant exposure on social media, as well as in the world media, that the company finally took responsibility, issuing a statement that “”On the 5th of September after abnormal heavy rain, overflow of one of the dikes occurred, and [contaminated] water entered Daldykan River.”[3] However, the company insists that there is no danger to humans or river flora / fauna and that they were taking steps to improve safety precautions for future incidents.

Heavy industrial pollution is not a new issue for Norilsk, which has often been cited as one of the most polluted cities on the planet.[4] In fact pollution had reached such high levels that in 2010 Vladimir Putin threatened to heavily fine Norilsk Nickel if steps weren’t taken to modernize the plants and reduce pollution.[5] Norilsk Nickel has pledged to invest over $3.5 billion in plant upgrades by 2020, a welcome step for residents who suffer from the toxic pollutants in the air.

_91067874_5b051dc2-7e3c-4675-aea8-6293d9c9418b — Figure 2: The remote location of Norilsk and the Arctic Region Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37345105

These steps being taken to modernize and reduce pollution are a good sign, however this most recent spill shows that the Arctic region is still extremely vulnerable to environmental contamination. The denial of responsibility for the spill by Norilsk Nickel is a perfect example of the worrying lack of strict governance in the region. The isolated nature Norilsk (Figure 2), with restricted access to industrial sites is indicative of the lacking environmental of oversight in the Arctic. Moreover, the companies operating in the area are not motivated to report spills, admit liability, and pay expensive cleanup costs, leaving it up to the media or civil-society to investigate these occurrences. Without the intense Social Media reaction to the ‘red-river of Norilsk,’ and its dramatic pictures, there is little doubt that the spill would have been swept under the rug or denied further.

untitled — Figure 3: A map showing the vast, remote, area affected by the Exxon Valdez Spill. Over 1500 miles of coastline were affected. Source: https://feww.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/exxon-valdez-spill-map.jpg

Unfortunately, this reaction to environmental disasters in the Arctic is not limited to Russia. Following the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, and up until present day, Exxon Mobil has tried to downplay the amount of oil spilled, and the amount of oil leftover in the area after cleanup.[6] The company was still involved in legal battles fighting against the responsibility for continuing environmental damage in 2006.[7] However, studies have shown that the vast area affected by the spill (Figure 3) has not fully recovered, both in terms of fauna population levels, and economic output.[8] Again, the remote nature of the Arctic and the fragility of the ecosystems in the region amplify the magnitude of spills, while the remote nature of the region with its relatively small populations and weak governance lessen the motivation for polluters to take responsibility. As oil exploration and general resource exploitation in the Arctic grows, we can expect more incidents like the Valdez and the Daldykan River. How regional actors respond to these inevitable disasters will help define the progress sustainable development in the Arctic.

References:

[1] http://www.nornik.ru/en/investor-relations/fact-sheet

[2] http://www.nornik.ru/en/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news/the-daldykan-river-photo-the-river-and-its-mainstream-are-in-regular-condition-and-show-the-natural-color

[3] http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/12/world/russia-red-river-siberia/

[4] http://www.blacksmithinstitute.org/the-2007-top-ten-of-worst-polluted-places.html

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/sep/15/norilsk-red-river-russias-most-polluted-city-clean

[6] http://www.adn.com/economy/article/size-exxon-spill-remains-disputed/2010/06/06/

[7] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2006-05-17/exxon-valdez-oil-spill-still-a-threat-study/1755518

[8] http://publish.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1020&context=caaurj

Project Launch

March 3, 2016October 11, 2016UncategorizedLeave a Comment

Welcome to the Arctic PIRE website! We will be using this site to provide updates and information about the progress of our project: Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic.This project will engage an international network of scientists to develop an Arctic Urban Sustainability Index. The Arctic region has also experience urban growth and has been changing at an amazing rate over the past years.Unfortunately, urban growth in the Arctic and globally has had detrimental effects (pollution, encroachment and contribution to climate change) on the landscapes that support them. These concerns have spurred an interest in measuring the state of urban centers, their promotion of sustainability, and the efficacy of such projects. The Arctic is also at the forefront of the battle to mitigate the effects of climate change, as average temperatures rose at almost twice the global rate over the past 100 years.[1] We believe it is imperative to properly assess the challenges these cities will face and track the progress of their sustainability policy. The Arctic PIRE Grant will enable us to study the accelerated pace of change in the Arctic, both environmentally as well as socio-economically, and will yield valuable lessons to serve other cities around the globe as they will inevitably face and need to adapt to the effects of climate-change.

The project officially launches in April 2016 and has been made possible through a generous grant from the National Science Foundation.

[1] “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains1.html