By Tahreem Alam, Masters in International Affairs ‘23
Saudi Arabia has taken key economic issues into its own hands, worrying its Western
counterparts and prompting reactions from the Biden administration. These actions are
reflected in Saudi Arabia’s oil policies, which is increasingly pursuing its own interest and
often seen at an expense to the U.S.
OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced that the cartel would cut oil production
by around 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1 percent of global production.
The justification behind these slightly-dramatic decisions continue to indicate Saudi Arabia’s
perception of themselves in the global order, which is a regional leader acting on its own
sovereignty.
Last fall, Saudi Arabia, a member of OPEC+, decided to cut oil production by 2 million
barrels during a time when the US pushed Saudi Arabia to produce more oil. Saudi Arabia
argued that the agreement was solely an economic one for the sake of recovering from
COVID-era losses and stabilizing the economy in the face of an impending global recession;
however, the US argued this move was political in nature and not purely for economic self-
interest.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy referred to key system narratives to take its position: most
importanyl, (1) the role of OPEC+ in the global market; (2) international economic pressures;
and (3) Western vs. Eastern/Global South influence in combating the US narrative of this
problem. System narratives are essentially ways of understanding how countries interact with
one another.
Additionally, several issues were used to help prop this argument, including the Ukraine-
Russia conflict, the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy and oil prices in the past
two years, and domestic economic issues Saudi Arabia faces following recent years of low oil
prices.
This chart provides an example of how Saudi Arabia might see itself in this political chess
game for a superpower role:
Battle of the Narratives – Saudi Arabia and OPEC +
| Master & Identity Narratives | System Narratives | Issue Narratives |
| Normal country pursuing self-interest Hegemonic power Responsibility to care for citizens Leader in Arabian Gulf State not playing in the hands of others | Rearrangement of power dynamics System functions on OPEC rules and decisions Battle for control of the global economy (superpower western state vs. Global South) | Ukraine-Russia War Oil deal is an economic issue unrelated to political goals in the U.S. Need for making up lost revenue from COVID-19 oil prices High oil prices will stabilize Saudi economy and inflation Economic issues from global pandemic foundation of oil prices Purely economic decision in the face of a global recession rise |
The Role of the US
In spite of Saudi Arabia’s recent moves, the West still holds far greater influence over the
region from a social and economic standpoint (China, another global power in the region, has
made in not making the US an enemy). However, this doesn’t mean that the US shouldn’t
acknowledge the rapidly-changing power dynamics in regional state conflicts.
It’s difficult to offer plausible diplomatic advice to this matter, especially since Saudi Arabia
is ignoring the global status quo and US-Western opinion for oil production. Ignoring these
developments could lead to long-term side effects of a decreased position of power in the
global arena, which the US might just have to accept anyway as the world moves away from
a Western-centric hegemonic system.
Time will tell if this is a blip in the drawn-out shift to a multipolar world, or if Saudi Arabia
has succeeded in placing itself as a contender for a future superpower status.
The full report is available here.
The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.
So interesting! Great viewpoint.
Really interesting read, I’m curious to see how this will play out!
Good analysis. As the anonymous tweet infers, this response by Saudi is, at least in part, driven by the current administration’s disaffiliation with Saudi. For years, Saudi has been interested in maintaining the status quo, through its strong ties with America and the west. The recent changes then seem to be more driven by America’s foreign policy than Saudi or OPEC.
“Time will tell if this is a blip in the drawn-out shift to a multipolar world, or if Saudi Arabia
has succeeded in placing itself as a contender for a future superpower status.”Agreed, while Saudia Arabia’s moves here may imply less reliance on the west, it’ll take more consistent actions of similar significance to truly tell.
Very interesting. We will see how the balance of power shifts from the West and who benefits from that
Really interesting article!
Great read I’m becoming less and less of a Saudi fan by the day
Great article! There is a lot of chatter these days about China’s influence in the Middle East. Can Saudi Arabia be a superpower state in this context?
Saudi Arabia can understandably gain from being on good terms with China for trade purposes. However, as long as the riyadh is pegged to the USD and the US remains willing to defend the Saudis militarily, it is unlikely that China will take over as Saudi Arabia’s most powerful ally.
The US will always deem any move that a country makes in response to what they want a political decision, whether or not it is aligned with what the US wants. Saudi Arabia has a right to do what it wants with it’s oil supply in regards to it’s economy as any country does with their imports and exports. However, considering that they are one of the largest suppliers of oil, it is fair for the US and other world powers to expect some consideration for how this move impacts the global economy. Considering the way the current global powers function, if this move DOES bring Saudi Arabia into “superpower” status, it will be because the current global powers are willing to accept Saudi Arabia as such.
Great read, I would hope that the US would move towards green energy instead of a continuing reliance on oil given shifting power dynamics in the region
Very interesting analysis. Good reminder on the dependency on oil and the economics of oil being at the whims of sovereign interests.
Interesting article and analysis, especially the battle of narratives.
Tahreem, this is outstanding read! Such an insightful analysis of Saudi Arabia’s potential role as a contender for superpower state in a new world order. It’s interesting to see how Saudi Arabia’s economic, military, and geopolitical capabilities have evolved over time, and how its strategic alliances and partnerships are shaping its foreign policy decisions. I was particularly intrigued by your point that Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts and increasing military capabilities could place it as a regional leader in the Middle East. However, as you note, the country still faces significant obstacles, such as low oil prices and domestic political instability. I look forward to reading more about your suggestions for what Saudi can do now and in the future.
Very interesting read!
Super interesting article! Definitely curious to see how Saudi foreign relations changes as countries start to move away from oil (e.g., recent climate legislation in the U.S. and E.U.).
Wow! Interesting stuff. Let’s try to move away from oil. There are so many other better sources of energy.
Thareem,
Excellent job of explaining the context behind Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut oil production and the implications for its relationships with the U.S. and other global powers. The use of system narratives and issue narratives to illustrate Saudi Arabia’s perspective and motivations adds depth to the analysis. It effectively shows the situation’s complexity and the various factors at play. It would be interesting to delve deeper into the potential long-term effects of Saudi Arabia’s actions on global oil markets and the energy sector. Are there any indications that Saudi Arabia’s recent moves could lead to a shift in the global energy landscape?
Thought-provoking piece, makes me curious to see how these dynamics on the global stage will play out.
Tahreem! Really great blog – I loved the use of tweets as examples and the charts were helpful to understand the narratives at play. I also really enjoyed the phrase ‘political chess game’, I think that is a great explanation for the dynamics you’ve outlined. I would love to learn more about the relationship between Saudi Arabia and other countries like the U.S. and Russia; specifically, diving into how the conflicts or close-ties Saudi Arabia is fostering with these established superpowers is helping or hindering their own journey. But, again, great job.