By Madelyn Berner, MA Global Communication, 2022
The European Union and Russia have long held competing narratives that prohibit the two sides from closer political cooperation. The EU is a supranational body of 27 member countries, founded on cooperation, solidarity, and protection against authoritarianism. This all contrasts sharply with Russia, which has maintained a more isolationist master narrative on the world stage. The glaring discrepancies in these two narratives make the international playing field increasingly difficult to maneuver.
Young and Old, Open and Closed
Russia’s master narrative has roots going back thousands of years, through a long and thorny history of vanquishment, collapse, and meddling from outside countries. Thanks to these struggles, Russia has developed into a more isolationist nation, or an “independent center of power on the world stage.”
In contrast, the master narratives driving the European Union are those of mediator, team player, and global policeman. By the end of World War II, the Soviet Union had already established itself on the world stage, but the EU was in its infancy, born out of this dark, divided period. Today, the bloc boasts a credo that emphasizes international cooperation and the stalwart defense of democratic values. Under the leadership of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU has established itself as a beacon of cooperation and inherent goodness. Its diplomats preach this identity around the world through its own system narratives. This is exemplified through its unwavering support for institutions like the United Nations and World Health Organization, as well as its commitment to delivering aid to struggling countries. From the bloodshed of the previous century to Donald Trump’s presidency, it is not surprising that the EU wants to be viewed as this generation’s global defender of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law – a supranational policeman protecting people from repression and violence.
Instability Opens a Narrative Vacuum
These narratives clash in Belarus, a fledgling nation previously under Soviet control and still feeling the weight of its shadow. Because of this, Belarus is still searching and formulating its own master narrative, leaving it vulnerable to outside influence. The EU enters wielding its narratives of rule of law and democratic values. Russia follows suit with its own narrative of protecting against outside influence.
Embattled Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. | AFP via Getty Image
Last summer, Belarus became mired in protests following an election widely believed to have been rigged in favor of incumbent leader Alexander Lukashenko. This instability has created a glaring chasm in the Belarusian identity – a prime opportunity for Russia to present itself as the answer to the West’s crooked influence. Putin has said that he wants Belarus to reactivate stalled plans for more integration with Russia. He even offered to set up a police force to support Lukashenko. Belarus is a middle-man country for Russian oil flowing West, and Moscow views Belarus as a buffer against encroaching NATO power. To protect itself from what it thinks is a Western threat to Russian sovereignty, Moscow is attempting to manipulate this situation to its benefit.
On the other side of this moral divide, proclaiming its devotion to democracy and the rule of the law, stands the EU. The situation in Belarus is attractive to the EU’s master narrative as international mediator and its system narratives of international cooperation. It is the largest donor of financial assistance to Belarus, and its success is important to stifling Russian influence in Eastern Europe. The EU has condemned the elections as unfree and unfair. EU leaders have been vocal in their opposition to Lukashenko, releasing statements, implementing sanctions, and supporting opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Unlike Putin, the EU has not promised any military intervention, hoping its diplomatic, mediating role will quell the need for further violence. Reducing political chaos in Belarus is also essential to maintaining a workable rapport with Russia, as several EU countries still depend on it economically – another system narrative.
The Battle Rages On
An unstable political situation in one country can help launch a proxy war between larger powers attempting to install their master narratives as the superior one. The narrative battle between the EU and Russia has serious implications for international affairs. The EU has been working to establish itself as a potent superpower intent on defending human rights and the rule of law for all. As it integrates more countries into its democratic web, this massive supranational bloc inches closer to Russia’s borders. In response, Russia remains apprehensive over how the West’s encroaching influence could stymie its own journey toward global primacy. After all, repeating history is not an option. Belarus shows us what happens when these two contrasting identities meet. Which narrative will prevail? The answer could influence other Eastern European nations to stand against Russia – or drive the rise of Soviet Union 2.0.
For an in-depth analysis by the author on the subject Click Here.
The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author. They do not express the views of the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication or the George Washington University.
Main photo: A demonstrator waves the historical white-red-white flag of Belarus during a demonstration in Minsk, Belarus. | Reuters
Maddy, kudos for distilling these complex issues and narratives into a simple, informative and engaging story. I have a lot of questions for you. What form do you see Belarus’ master narrative taking as it slowly emerges? Would it be one that aligns more closely to the EU’s or Russia’s? Is there any area of convergence for EU and Russian master/identity narratives where they do not clash? What role do you see Georgian and Ukrainian master/identity narratives playing? Will the EU and Russia try to leverage them to promote a particular identity or system narrative to Belarus? Finally, do you foresee a third alternative – that neither EU nor Russian narratives prevail and that both lose their salience entirely to Belarusian narratives? Clearly, your blog has evoked a lot of questions in me and I cannot wait to watch this battle unfold.
Fascinating insights– Belarus will certainly be worth watching as the clash between Russian and European narratives and ideals escalates.
However, could the EU have harmed its position in this situation by failing to reach a consensus on sanctions against Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials until two months after the elections?
Great perspective! I am interested to see the role of social media in this narrative.
Additionally, as we have seen the Kremlin steadily accomplishing its goals in Belarus throughout a tumultuous time for unity in Europe, I am also interested to see the role of the United States and its renewed commitment with NATO allies in this narrative.
Great read!
Well researched, crafted, and worded! The comments on Belarus being a “softball” (if you will) for the EU to build on its master narrative on being international mediator—but also having to walk the tightrope of Russia and consider the Member States that rely on it was well written and fascinating!
Excellent analysis. Thank you for clearly detailing the potential implications for global narrative battles between the EU and Russia.
Wonderful job!
A fantastic piece! I appreciate your thoughtful discourse about this serious topic and the well-researched information you provided. It is a topic I am not familiar with, so I feel I really received a great analysis that covered a lot of material!
(Presumably) like many other Americans, I first learned about the political situation in Belarus from a September episode of The Daily podcast which discussed Lukashenko’s rise to power and the various measures he’s employed to keep it. It’s helpful and thought-provoking to see the geopolitical stakes laid out so clearly…Russia’s goals extend far beyond the short-term economic benefits, and your article makes it evident why.
This is a fascinating and rare example of a country without its own well-developed national narrative being a narrative battleground for larger and more rooted rivals. The highly personalized nature of Lukashenko’s rule is likely to delay the maturation of any such Belarusian narrative, unfortunately. Can’t help but wonder whether the people are in as ambiguous a position as the Belarusian leader is on a personal level. The EU narrative probably has more traction with the Belarusian “street,” because that linkage offers better economic and human rights advantages than life as “Putin’s buffer state.”
This is a beautifully written article that seamlessly flows through relevant background information, critical analysis, and forward-looking recommendations. Your comments on the “narrative vacuum” of Belarus introduced an angle to narratives I had not thoroughly considered before, which is how their longevity plays into their strength. Narratives often get their strength because they are deeply embedded within a nation’s culture and repeatedly reinforced over time, so it’s very interesting to read about a case in which there is not an existing, strong narrative to lean back on. In this case, it seems as if countries not only have the opportunity to exploit a narrative, but almost to co-create one – consistent with their values/goals – alongside Belarus. I’d love to learn more about how Belarus is reacting to these competing narratives, and how the battle plays out domestically through media, government, and public opinion.
You did a great job of making this issue easy to understand in such a short article. The opening visual is quite good too. I can’t help but wonder how the formation of Belarusian identity narratives plays into the EU-Russia battle over the country. Also, with coronavirus vaccination issues in the EU and rising populism in Eastern Europe, I feel that the EU narrative is becoming less sound. Do you think this has affected the EU-Russia battle at all?
I find this topic especially interesting as Russia as recently returned to acts of aggression towards another country, the Ukraine. I think that the Russian narrative of protectionism against the West plays a large role in almost all of their political decisions. I like how you simplified this topic into Belarus as a gateway between the EU and Russia. I think that the best narratives that the EU can have against Russia is supporting their autonomy and sovereignty as a nation.
This blog reminded me about the article “Russia’s Art of War: State Branding by other means”, and how Russia used military exercises to help their narrative, but no other country was willing to stop said military actions. How do you think the EU, whose narratives are about democracy, could help stop Russia’s constant military expressions to fortify its narratives? Do you think it master and system narrative will suffer?
This is a fascinating case of a country being used as the battle-ground for a narrative-based warfare between the EU and Russia. One thing I am curious about is how culturally congruent are both the Russian and EU narratives in Belarusian society? Are there internal divisions that outside forces (EU/RUSSIA) can leverage to push their own narrative?
Very interesting!
I really like your point about Belarus being vulnerable because it’s still formulating its own master narratives. I think this is key to your argument. I do think there’s some inherent contradictions in your characterizations of the EU. You say the EU was established “as a beacon of cooperation and inherent goodness”, but you also emphasize their concern for the rule of law as a regional policeman. I would be careful with combining goodness with being a regional policeman. Afterall, we know that police often tend to abuse their power and act with impunity.