Relentless, Resilient, and Reliable

At the GW Investment Institute (GWII) we work to be relentless, resilient, and reliable.

We think our relentless effort will continue to create opportunities for our students, staff, faculty, alumni, and friends.

The pace for semester is now accelerating and our expectations for our students are high. That said, we’re optimistic that we can properly teach and train our student portfolio managers/analysts to better position the GWII portfolios for new opportunities and to be more resilient in the face of uncertainty.

We are thankful for the many opportunities we have and for the many partnerships we have with our colleagues, alumni, and friends. We’ll continue to work to be more reliable for all of you, thank you.

And, importantly here in the U.S., September 11th is a day for reflection and remembrance, let’s resolve to be more relentless, resilient, and reliable.

Best regards,
Rodney

September 11, 2020

“Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labor does the body.” – Lucius Annaeus Seneca

If you’re following the equity markets closely (there could be good reasons not to, by the way), you’ll likely have noticed today’s sharp retracement, the S&P 500 Index closed down -3.48% and the tech-centric NASDAQ Composite Index finished down -4.96% on the day. It’s been a few months since we saw such a move down, mostly the market has been moving higher since the calendar year lows in late March.

The market is a present value estimation of the discounted future value, and when the discount rate is historically low, i.e., low interest rates – we should expect higher present values, that’s math, it works. That said, has the market moved too far and too fast. Is it well ahead of the real economy? Are the current financial expectations exceeding what the real economy can deliver in the associated timeframe? The duration and impact of COVID-19 make these questions difficult to answer. Further, when will an effective vaccine be ready: soon? never? When will it be widely distributed: soon? never? These ranges are wide, making any type of modeling for future scenarios less than highly reliable.

Maybe the wisdom of the crowd will get this right, but maybe it does not have it sorted out quite yet. In the meantime, a balanced view of the way forward may serve us well. We’ll focus on the areas where the world is going, where demand is going, and where we can have a positive impact. Let’s use the current difficulties and uncertainties to strengthen. Happy Labor Day.

Best regards,
Rodney

September 3, 2020

Where is the Market Going?

The equity market, represented as an individual person wants to move higher, is optimistic and ready for whatever’s next. This outlook is powered in part by low interest rates and by a COVID-19 induced bifurcation of corporate winners and losers. Technology broadly represents some of the big winners, and old-line retail represents some of the losers – generally companies that had not and could not adapt to the new environment.

The economic impact of COVID-19 seems to be an accelerant for changes that were already underway. For example, old-line retail was not doing a fabulous job pre-COVID-19, the move to virtual everything just pushed them to the brink, some beyond – think Lord & Taylor, J.C. Penny, and Neiman Marcus. Meanwhile Amazon as no real surprise to anyone using Prime which has more than 100 million subscribers is leading the way in retail seemingly built for this type of environment, and some traditional brick-and-mortar, i.e., Walmart and Target are finding ways to adapt, for example Walmart’s Pickup and delivery especially for groceries.

So what can we glean from this? Some of the trends mentioned above were already in place pre-COVID-19, and what can we do to move forward? We can look to identify trends that may increase the probability of us making intelligent capital allocation decisions and we can move in that direction. As far as where the market is going, I have no idea.

Best regards,
Rodney

August 25, 2020

The Sky’s the Limit

“The sky’s the limit” – implies an indefinite yet seemingly limitless upward bound, well the opportunity set for the space commercialization industry is literally well beyond the sky. This is an important moment in the development of the space industry and D.C. and the DMV generally is home to some of the industry’s basic infrastructure for government, the private sector, and academics. Some examples include: NASA’s headquarters, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA Wallops Flight Facility, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Airforce, U.S. Space Force, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and GW’s Space Policy Institute.

The landscape is changing rapidly and the frontier is out there. We are aiming to think of ways to participate in the evolution of the space industry. This past spring semester we had student teams in the GW Investment Institute associated venture course study and work on ideas that could be part of the new space industry. Here are their ideas:

  • Lunachix – create the technology behind products that women need to ensure that they have freedom to decide how they treat their period – whether on Earth or in space.
  • 4MY Partners – outer space asset management and services.
  • Buzz Solutions – provide comprehensive master planning and project management solutions to investors and clients working on the mining of water in space.
  • VantaBlack – lunar nuclear reactor using kilopower nuclear reactor technology.
  • Scobo – empowering people analytics with big data and machine learning.

This fall semester we’ll be asking a new set of student teams to develop their own ideas for the space industry. We’ll keep you posted on our progress.

Best regards,
Rodney

August 11, 2020

GW PPE Factory

As the COVID-19 pandemic races through the U.S. and other parts of the world, one important consideration is to think how we can help to stop, slow, and/or better manage the situation. There has been an unprecedented need for Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and therefore shortages. If you would like to help in the D.C, Maryland, Virginia (DMV) area, please consider providing funding to help our GW Personal Protective Equipment Factory. This is a GW team led by Professor James Huckenpahler, an adjunct digital lab instructor in the Corcoran School of Art and Design. The team is using 3D printers to produce PPE for the GW Hospital, as well as donating PPE to organizations in DC, Prince George’s county in Maryland, and parts of northern Virginia, see GW Today article for further detail. GW Community Collaborates to Produce PPEs for Hospital Workers.

If you would like to make a gift to support this GW PPE Factory effort, please use this link and in the comment field type “for GW PPE Factory”. All funds raised will go directly to purchasing materials and equipment to produce additional PPE for GW and the DC area. Thank you, every dollar will help. 

Thanks for being part of our community, stay safe and be well.

 

Best regards,

Rodney