COVID-19 – Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP)

Multidimensional Poverty Dynamics in Indonesia in the time of COVID-19: Lessons Learned and Policy Implications

February 6, 2023April 4, 2023COVID-19, Development Economics and Poverty Alleviation Events, Global Governance, Past Events

March 8th, Wednesday 2023
via Zoom and in person

It has long been recognised that poverty encompasses multiple aspects of wellbeing,thus, to truly measure it, a multidimensional tool is needed. This need has become further apparent as the impacts of COVID-19 continue to unfold and disrupt different areas of life, which include, among others, challenges in health, access to learning and the learning gap, alongside significant reductions in standards of living. This paper aims to examine multidimensional poverty trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, utilising a measure that is based on the Alkire-Foster (AF) method. To build this measure, data on household indicators available within the 2019, 2020 and 2021 Susenas waves, will be used. By utilising household information before and during the pandemic, this paper will analyse whether COVID-19 has led to significant increases in multidimensional poverty and to the emergence of the “new poor”. This paper also seeks to present an analysis of differences before and after the pandemic, with regard to the determinants of multidimensional poverty, thus pin-pointing household characteristics, which contribute the most to the experience of poverty. Finally, the findings of this paper aim to act as a robust evidence-base to guide the implementation of poverty alleviation policies in Indonesia during the pandemic.

Speaker:

Putu Natih supports the OPHI Outreach team and is also a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (FEB UI), where she teaches Econometrics for undergraduate and postgraduate students. Putu is also currently supporting Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Human Development and Culture, as a social protection specialist. Before OPHI and FEB UI, Putu was a Statistics Tutor at Keble and St John’s Colleges at the University of Oxford. She also worked as a Research Assistant at the Blavatnik School of Government within a project on digital inequality. Putu completed her undergraduate degree at the Faculty of Economics, Universitas Indonesia and was a Jardine-Oxford Scholar at Trinity College, the University of Oxford, where she studied for her MPhil and DPhil.

Discussant:

Dr Elan Satriawan is an Economist with significant experience in both academic and policy making areas. In academics, he has done extensive research covering topics in development microeconomics areas particularly in impact evaluation and effectiveness of anti-poverty and social programs, poverty related issues including health, education and inter-linkages between the two involving frontiers empirical techniques including randomised experiments. In policy areas, he leads a high-profile government policy think tank to advise the Vice President in taking strategic policy decisions on poverty alleviation and social development. He has extensive knowledge in conducting monitoring and evaluation as well as using the knowledge generated from the research for policy advocacy, capacity building and knowledge management

Optimised Multidimensional Poverty Reduction. A Model Based on Policy-Makers Capabilities

February 6, 2023April 4, 2023COVID-19, Development Economics and Poverty Alleviation Events, Past Events

February 8th, Wednesday 2023
Zoom and In-Person

This study supports national planners at determining the types and magnitudes of interventions, and the specific population groups that should be targeted to achieve a desired reduction in the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) efficiently. In the post COVID era, survey data and MPI methods aim to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on multidimensional poverty. This study proposes models guiding policymakers on the path to recovery from COVID-19 (or any other emerging crisis) and toward meeting the 2030 Agenda Goals, thus ensuring efficient policy action and efficient resource allocation.

Speakers:

Vladimir Hlasny, economic affairs officer with UN-ESCWA (Beirut), Poverty and inequality research team. Previously an associate professor of Economics at Ewha Womans University (Seoul). His work is on labor market conditions and the distribution of economic outcomes in Asia and the Middle East. His research has been published in general-interest journals including the World Bank Economic Review, Review of Income and Wealth, Journal of Regulatory Economics, Development and Change, and Social Science Quarterly. PhD in Economics from Michigan State University.

Hassan Hamie, economist with UN-ESCWA (Beirut), Poverty and inequality research team. Previously worked as an engineer for the Lebanese Petroleum Administration. Currently working on the topics of poverty, Inequality and inclusive development. PhD in Energy Economics from Technical University of Vienna.

Discussant:

Paul Makdissi is a professor at the Department of Economics of the University of Ottawa. He is currently an Associate Editor of the Journal of Economic Inequality. Previously he has held positions at the Université de Sherbrooke (Canada) and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (The Netherlands). His main areas of research are socioeconomic health inequality measurement, the distributive impact of taxation and public pricing, and income inequality measurement. He was the president of the Société canadienne de science économique (the French Canadian economics association) for the 2021-2022 academic year. From 2017 to 2019, he was the thematic leader for the Equity and Inclusive Growth research theme for the Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey. He has also been a consultant for many federal and provincial ministries and agencies in Canada, the World Bank, and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.

Understanding Poverty Dynamics and the Impact of the Pandemic

February 24, 2022March 23, 2022COVID-19, India, Past Events, Ultra Poverty

Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022
8:30 – 10:00 a.m. EST / 7:00 – 8:30 p.m. IST
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the sixth webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

This event featured Professor Anirudh Krishna of Duke University to discuss “Understanding Poverty Dynamics and the Impact of the Pandemic.” Dr. Sekhar Bonu (NITI Aayog, India) and Christian Oldiges (UNDP) provided discussant remarks.

In this talk, Professor Anirudh Krishna discussed how income- and consumption-based measures are handy but provide an ephemeral and incomplete assessment of people’s underlying poverty status. Measures based on assets and capabilities more reliably reflect people’s structural situations, providing a better handle on sustained earning ability. He examined changes in longer-term poverty over the Covid-19 pandemic using the Stages-of-Progress method. He selected locations where he had collected household-level data several years earlier. On-the-ground surveys in one rural part undertaken in July and August 2021 show that while households’ incomes fell sharply, there was no accretion of longer-term poverty. In urban slums, however, structural poverty increased; assets and capabilities are considerably eroded. Mounting the appropriate response requires a fine-grained approach; because of differences in local economies, state and national averages are misleading.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

Abstract: Income- and consumption-based measures are handy but provide an ephemeral and incomplete assessment of people’s underlying poverty status. Measures based on assets and capabilities more reliably reflect people’s structural situations, providing a better handle on sustained earning ability. We examine changes in longer-term poverty over the Covid-19 pandemic using the Stages-of-Progress method. We select locations where we had collected household-level data several years earlier. On-the-ground surveys in one rural part undertaken in July and August 2021 show that while households’ incomes fell sharply, there was no accretion of longer-term poverty. In urban slums, however, structural poverty increased; assets and capabilities are considerably eroded. Mounting the appropriate response requires a fine-grained approach; because of differences in local economies, state and national averages are misleading.

About the Speaker

Anirudh Krishna (PhD in Government, Cornell University, 2000; Master’s in Economics, Delhi University, 1980) is the Edgar T. Thompson Professor of Public Policy and Political Science at Duke University. His research of the past 25 years investigates how poor communities and individuals cope with the structural and personal constraints that result in poverty and powerlessness. Krishna has written more than seventy journal articles, and has eight books, including One Illness Away: Why People Become Poor and How they Escape Poverty and The Broken Ladder: The Paradox and the Potential of India’s One-Billion. For this body of work, Krishna was awarded an honorary doctorate by Uppsala University, Sweden, and received other academic awards. Before returning to academia, Krishna spent 14 years with the Indian Administrative Service, managing diverse rural and urban development initiatives. He has consulted with the World Bank, the United Nations, national governments, and non-government organizations.

About the Discussants

Dr. Sekhar Bonu joined as the Director General of Development Monitoring and Evaluation Office (DMEO) in April 2019. The Government established DMEO in September 2015 as an attached office of the NITI Aayog to fulfil the monitoring and evaluation mandates assigned to NITI Aayog. Before joining NITI Aayog, Dr. Bonu worked with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila for 15 years. At ADB, he worked in health, urban infrastructure development and regional cooperation, mainly in South Asia. Dr. Bonu worked in the Indian Administrative Services and served as a civil servant in Rajasthan between 1987-2003, among others, as district magistrate, director of primary and secondary education, chief executive officer of state-owned Enterprises. Dr. Sekhar Bonu has a PhD from Johns Hopkins University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst charter holder. He has a wide range of research and operational interests and has published in peer-review journals.

Christian Oldiges is a Development Economist, currently serving as Policy Specialist at the Inclusive Growth team of UNDP/BPPS, New York. He brings more than 10 years of experience in the fields of development economics, policy advocacy and social protection. Previously, as Director of Policy Research at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), University of Oxford, he has been directly involved in developing national MPIs with governments in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In postdoctoral studies at Oxford, he has written about how 270 million people moved out of multidimensional poverty in India within a decade, poverty reduction and its interlinkages with COVID-19, migration, and conflict, as well as on workfare programs and food security in India. He holds a PhD in Economics (Heidelberg University, Germany) and has studied at Hindu College and the Delhi School of Economics, Delhi University.

Policy Choices and Contagion: The Covid Pandemic and the Climate Crisis

April 20, 2021March 18, 2022Climate Adaptation, COVID-19, Past Events

Wednesday, May 26, 2021
12 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

Behavioral contagion refers to how ideas and behaviors often spread in ways that resemble the spread of infectious disease. Exposure to others infected by a virus, for example, makes people more likely to become infected, just as people are more likely to drink excessively when they spend more time with heavy drinkers. But there are also important differences between the two types of contagion. One is the effect of visibility. Solar panels that are visible from the street, for instance, are more likely to stimulate neighboring installations. In contrast, we try to avoid others who are visibly ill. Another difference is that viral contagion is almost always a bad thing, but behavioral contagion can be either negative—as with smoking—or positive, as with solar installations. The seminar will discuss the policy choices we face when individually rational behavior is collectively irrational, as often happens under both types of contagion.

This webinar was moderated by IIEP Co-Director James Foster, with introductory remarks by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma and welcome remarks by Ann Florini of ASU-Thunderbird. This event was co-sponsored by the Thunderbird School of Management, Arizona State University, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU.

Meet the Presenter:

Robert H. Frank (@econnaturalist) is the HJ Louis Professor of Management and Professor of Economics, Emeritus, at Cornell’s Johnson School of Management. His “Economic View” column has appeared in The New York Times since 2005. He received his B.S. in mathematics from Georgia Tech, then taught math and science for two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer in rural Nepal. He holds an M.A. in statistics and a Ph.D. in economics, both from the University of California at Berkeley.

His books, which include Choosing the Right Pond, Passions Within Reason, Microeconomics and Behavior, Principles of Economics (with Ben Bernanke), Luxury Fever, What Price the Moral High Ground?, Falling Behind, The Economic Naturalist, The Darwin Economy, Success and Luck, and Under the Influence have been translated into 24 languages. The Winner-Take-All Society, co-authored with Philip Cook, received a Critic’s Choice Award, was named a Notable Book of the Year by The New York Times, and was included in Business Week‘s list of the ten best books of 1995. He received the 2004 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought, the Johnson School’s Stephen Russell Distinguished teaching award in 2004, 2010, 2012, and 2017, and its Apple Distinguished Teaching Award in 2005.

Meet the Discussant:

Dr. Roland Kupers is an advisor on Complexity, Resilience and Energy Transition, a Professor of Practice at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, and a fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies at the University of Amsterdam.

A theoretical physicist by training, Roland spent a decade at AT&T and then a decade at Royal Dutch Shell in various senior executive functions, including Vice President for Sustainable Development and Vice President Global LNG, where he was integrally involved with strategy and scenario planning.

His numerous publications include most recently his pathbreaking book on A Climate Policy Revolution: What the Science of Complexity Reveals about Saving Our Planet (Harvard University Press, 2020). His previous works include such co-authored books as The Essence of Scenarios (Amsterdam University Press, 2014) and Complexity and the Art of Public Policy (Princeton University Press 2014), along with an edited volume: Turbulence: A Corporate Perspective on Collaborating for Resilience (Amsterdam University Press, 2014) and articles in Harvard Business Review and in Project Syndicate.

Meet the moderator:

Sunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF- Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, Dr. Sharma was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. His current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Welcome Remarks by:

Ann Florini is Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, D.C. campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University founding director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations including government, civil society, and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of well-being – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

Thunderbird Finance and Sustainability Series

The global financial system is facing new pressures to become “sustainable” – not only financially stable, but simultaneously environmentally friendly and socially inclusive. These pressures are partly political, in reaction to the increasing financialization of the global economy and the sector’s failure to steer investment to meet the needs of society. New financial technologies (“fintech”) pose yet more pressures on incumbent financial institutions but also offer great opportunities for the creation of what some are calling “citizen-centric” finance. Top public authorities are convening in the new Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. The private sector has already moved rapidly from CSR to considering broader forms of ESG (environmental, social, governance) risks and opportunities in investments. Thunderbird’s Finance and Sustainability webinar series explores these urgent questions with leading practitioners and thinkers.

How the Pandemic Exposed the Incomplete Gender Revolution: Work, Family, and Public Policy

February 3, 2021March 21, 2022COVID-19, Development Economics, Past Events

Monday, February 15th 2021
2:00pm – 3:30pm
WebEx

Over the past 70 years gender roles in the home and the workplace changed. Women have become more equal contributors in the labor market and men more equal contributors in the home. These changes were partially driven by the economic forces of technological change and increased international trade. As we entered 2020, women held the majority of jobs in the labor market and the vast majority of children were being raised in homes in which all parents worked. The pandemic disrupted our modern family and work lives, bringing kids out of childcare and home, and leaving many parents unemployed, while others are working at home. The result has been an unprecedented drop in labor force participation and a scaling back of hours of work by parents, particularly among women. In this talk, the economic forces that pushed gender equality, the limitations to fully realizing gender equality, and the set-back of women’s equality caused by the pandemic were discussed.

About the Speakers:

Betsey Stevenson is a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. She is also a faculty research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting associate professor of economics at the University of Sydney, a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a fellow of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich, and serves on the executive committee of the American Economic Association. She served as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2015 where she advised President Obama on social policy, labor market, and trade issues. She served as the chief economist of the U.S. Department of Labor from 2010 to 2011, advising the Secretary of Labor on labor policy and participating as the secretary’s deputy to the White House economic team. She has held previous positions at Princeton University and at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

Dr. Stevenson is a labor economist who has published widely in leading economics journals about the labor market and the impact of public policies on outcomes both in the labor market and for families as they adjust to changing labor market opportunities. Her research explores women’s labor market experiences, the economic forces shaping the modern family, and how these labor market experiences and economic forces on the family influence each other. She is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and her analysis of economic data and the economy are frequently covered in both print and television media.

Dr Stevenson earned a BA in economics and mathematics from Wellesley College and an MA and PhD in economics from Harvard University.

Madeline de Quillacq is a current senior at the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, pursuing a Bachelor of Science in Economics and International Affairs, with a concentration in International Economics. She is president of GW Women in Economics, an intern at the Reshoring Institute, and has been a research assistant at the Institute for International Economic Policy for almost two years. In addition, she served as an undergraduate teacher’s assistant for the college course “Principles of Mathematics for Economics” and attended Sciences Po in Paris, France during the 2019-2020 academic year. Madeline is a tri-citizen (US, UK, France) and fluent in French.

About the Discussants:

Dr. Mary Ellsberg is the Executive Director and Founding Director of the Global Women’s Institute at the George Washington University. Dr. Ellsberg has more than 30 years of experience in international research and programs on gender and development. Before joining the university in August 2012, Dr. Ellsberg served as Vice President for Research and Programs at the International Center for Research on Women. Dr. Ellsberg’s deep connection to global gender issues stems not only from her academic work, but also from living in Nicaragua for nearly 20 years, leading public health and women’s rights advocacy. She was a member of the core research team of the World Health Organization’s Multi-Country Study on Domestic Violence and Women’s Heath, and she has authored more than 40 books and articles on violence against women and girls. Dr. Ellsberg earned a doctorate in epidemiology and public health from Umea University in Sweden and a bachelor’s degree in Latin American studies from Yale University.

Eiko Strader is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Women’s, Gender & Sexuality Studies, and Sociology. Her research and teaching focus on social inequalities by gender, race/ethnicity, sexuality, citizenship, and criminal records. Much of her work tries to understand how and under what conditions these social categories become relevant in predicting life chances across different policy contexts. She has published related works in Social Forces, Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, International Migration Review, Journal of International Affairs, and other outlets.

This event was co-sponsored with GW Women in Economics.

GW Women in Economics seeks to increase women’s representation and support women’s participation in economics, at GWU and in the broader profession. The organization seeks to address the demonstrated lack of representation of women in the field of economics, beginning at the pipeline by fostering interest among students, increase visibility of women pursuing economic degrees, providing professional networking opportunities that promote the advancement of women in the professions, and to create a forum in which issues of common interest can be explored.

Recovering from Pandemic Recessions

November 13, 2020March 25, 2022COVID-19, James Foster, Past Events, Remi Jedwab, Research Conference

Friday, November 20, 2020
WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

In this panel event, Dr. John Rogers, Senior Adviser at the Federal Reserve Board, and Michael Song, Professor of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, will share their respective research investigating economic recessions and recoveries during modern health crises and China’s economic experience during the current pandemic.

Examining historical episodes, John Rogers’ latest work finds that during the previous modern health crises, real GDP growth fell by around three percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth was rapid, but output was still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers was higher and exhibited more persistence, and there was significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment were felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Affected countries’ consumption declined, investment dropped sharply, and international trade plummeted. Bounce-back in these expenditure categories is also rapid but not by enough to restore pre-shock trends. These estimates are viewed as a lower bound for the global economic effects of COVID-19.

Zooming in on the effect of the pandemic and lockdown policy on Chinese economy, Michael will first show his estimates on the economic impacts of COVID-19 using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data from China. The largest economic impacts are from COVID shocks to Wuhan and Beijing, knocking about three percentage points off the national real income. If all Chinese cities had containment policies that responded to local pandemic severity in the same way as those in Hubei did, China’s first-quarter real income would have been reduced by half. He will then use firm registration records, online sales and job posting data to show the recovery of Chinese economy and its structural patterns.

Meet the Speakers:

John Rogers is a Senior Adviser in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. He received his BA from the University of Delaware and PhD in economics from the University of Virginia. John was on the economics department faculty at Penn State University, where he rose to Associate Professor in 1996. He began working on the Fed’s multi-country model in the Trade & Financial Studies section, and became section chief in 2003. John is the author of several academic publications in international finance and macroeconomics. He continues to teach those subjects as an adjunct professor in the economics department at Georgetown University. John is the father of five children.

Michael Song is a professor at the Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), an outstanding fellow of the Faculty of Social Science at CUHK, a co-director of CUHK-Tsinghua Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy and a distinguished visiting professor at the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University. His research focuses on Chinese economy and macroeconomics. He published papers on leading academic journals including American Economic Review and Econometrica. His paper “Growing like China” won Sunyefang Economic Science Award and the Best Paper Award for Chinese Young Economists. Before joining CUHK, Prof. Song was an associate professor of economics at Chicago Booth. Prof. Song is also a co-editor of China Economic Review, an associate editor of Econometrica and Journal of European Economic Association and an academic committee member of China’s Economics Foundation.

Meet the Moderator:

Rémi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Chinese Translation:

乔治华盛顿大学国际经济政策研究所 (The Institute for International Economic Policy) (IIEP) 欢迎您参加中国经济发展和中美经济关系的第十三届年会。今年的研讨会将以用虚拟方式进行。这个活动是全英文的。这次会议是由Sigur亚洲研究中心和乔治华盛顿国际商业教育与研究中心共同主办的。

在这次小组讨论会上，美联储高级顾问Dr. John Rogers 和香港中文大学宋铮(Michael Song) 教授将分享他们各自在有关现代健康危机导致的经济衰退和复苏和中国在Covid-19疫情期间经济走向的研究成果。

Dr. John Rogers 最近的研究发现在先前健康危机期间，疫情爆发当年，被影响的国家的实际国内生产总值相对于未受到影响的国家跌幅达到3%。实际国内生产总值反弹很快，但五年后产量仍然比爆发年前低。受教育程度较低的工人失业率持续偏高，并且表现出更大的持久性；女性失业持久性也明显比男性高。对在疫情第一年提供大量政府资助，尤其医疗方面支出，的国家，实际国内生产总值和失业影响偏小。受到影响的国家消费，投资，和国际贸易都跌幅很大，虽然反弹迅速，但仍然不足以恢复爆发年前的趋势。此研究认为以往健康危机对经济的影响是此次COVID-19 对全球经济影响的下限。

专注于目前Covid-19疫情与隔离政策对中国经济的影响，宋教授的工作指出隔离对经济，包括从人口和货物流动到总产出，都带来剧烈影响。消费支出的大小和结构也有很大的调整。隔离的时间结束以后，制造业恢复迅速，而用电量，零售额和餐饮收入则表现较大跨区域异质性，服务业产出的也受到更大影响。

演讲者：

宋铮 (Michael Song)

宋铮是香港中文大学经济系的教授，社会科学院的杰出学者, 清华大学－香港中文大学中国经济联合研究中心的主任，和清华大学经济管理学院杰出访问教授。他的研究领域为中国经济和宏观经济学。宋教授的论文在顶级学术期刊，包括American Economic Review 和 Econometrica，发表。他的论文 “Growing like China” 获得孙冶方经济学奖和中国青年经济学家优秀论文奖。在加入香港中文大学之前, 宋铮曾任芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学副教授。他的学术兼职还包括 China Economic Review 联合主编，Econometrica 和 Journal of European Economic Association 副主编, 中国经济学基金会学术委员会委员等。

John Rogers

John Rogers 是美联储国际金融部的高级顾问。他拥有德拉瓦大学 (University of Delaware) 的政治和经济学士学位，以及弗吉尼亚大学 (University of Virginia) 的经济学博士学位。 Dr. Rogers曾在宾夕法尼亚州立大学 (Pennsylvania State University) 经济系任教，并于1996年升任副教授。他在美联储的贸易与金融研究部门研究美联储的多国模型，并于2003年成为该部门负责人。 Dr. Rogers 是诸多国际金融和宏观经济学方面学术出版物的作者。目前Dr. Rogers 在乔治敦大学 (Georgetown University) 经济学系担任兼职教授。他也是五个小孩的爸爸。