Friday, April 23, 2021
1:30 pm – 3:00 pm EDT
via Zoom
Agenda
1:30 – 1:35 p.m. Welcoming Remarks:
Jay Shambaugh, George Washington University
1:35 – 2:05 p.m. Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
Presenter: Malhar Nabar, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Karen Dynan, Harvard University and Peterson Institute
2:05 – 2:30 p.m. Chapter 2: After Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Presenter: Sonali Das, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Danny Leipziger, George Washington University
2:30 – 2:55 p.m. Chapter 3: Recessions and Recoveries in Labor Markets: Patterns, Policies, and Responses to the COVID-19 Shock
Presenter: Francesca Caselli, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Kristen Broady, Hamilton Project, Brookings and Dillard University
2:55 – 3:00 p.m. General Q&A and Concluding Remarks
Read the full World Economic Outlook here.
Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
Although the contraction of activity in 2020 was unprecedented in living memory, extraordinary policy support prevented even worse economic outcomes. Global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022, revised up from the October 2020 WEO. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility. High uncertainty surrounds this outlook, related to the pandemic’s path, the effectiveness of policies as a bridge to vaccine-powered normalization, and the evolution of financial conditions. Much remains to be done to beat back the pandemic and avoid persistent increases in inequality within countries and divergence across economies.
Chapter 1 Presenter:
Malhar Nabar heads the World Economic Studies division in the IMF’s Research Department, which produces the World Economic Outlook (WEO). In previous roles in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department he covered China and Japan, and was mission chief for Hong Kong, SAR. Malhar’s research interests are in financial development, investment, and productivity growth. Before joining the IMF in 2009, he was an Assistant Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. He holds a Ph.D. from Brown University.
Chapter 1 Discussant:
Karen Dynan is a Professor of the Practice in the Harvard University Department of Economics and at the Harvard Kennedy School. She previously served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury from 2014 to 2017. From 2009 to 2013, Dynan was vice president and co-director of the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution. Before that, she was on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board, leading work in macroeconomic forecasting, household finances, and the Fed’s response to the financial crisis. Dynan has also served as a senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers (2003-2004) and as a visiting assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University (1998). Her current research focuses on fiscal and other types of macroeconomic policy, consumer behavior, and household finances. She is also currently a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Dynan received her Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and her A.B. from Brown University.
Chapter 2: After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
This chapter examines the possible persistent damage (scarring) that may occur from the COVID-19 recession and the channels through which they may occur. Expected medium-term output losses from the pandemic are substantial, at about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. To limit scarring, policymakers should continue to provide support to the most-affected sectors and workers while the pandemic is ongoing. Remedial policies for the setback to human capital accumulation, measures to lift investment, and initiatives to support reallocation will be key to address long-term GDP losses.
Chapter 2 Presenter:
Sonali Das is a senior economist in the World Economic Studies Division in the IMF’s Research Department. Previously, she worked in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, where she covered China, India, Nepal, and Fiji. Her research interests include monetary policy, investment, and financial stability. She holds a PhD in economics from Cornell University.
Chapter 2 Discussant:
Dr. Danny Leipziger is Professor of International Business and International Affairs at George Washington University, where he is concurrently the Managing Director of the Growth Dialogue. Professor Leipziger has been a faculty member in the highly-ranked International Business Department since 2009, where he has taught both undergraduate and graduate courses on macroeconomics, applied development, financial crises, and international economics, and he has taught in the GW/IFC/Milken Capital Markets Graduate Program for mid-career government officials since its inception. He has been advisor to the governments of South Korea, Vietnam, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan, Argentina, and South Africa, among others.
A former Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management at the World Bank (2004-2009), he served three World Bank Presidents and held senior management positions in the East Asia and Latin America Regions. While at the World Bank, he led the team preparing the emergency financial bailout loan to Korea in 1997. He was the World Bank’s Director for Finance, Private Sector and Infrastructure for Latin America (1998-2004). He served previously in the U.S. Department of State, and was a Member of the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff.
Dr. Leipziger was Vice Chair of the Spence Commission on Growth and Development and he served on the WEF Council on Economic Progress. An economist with a Ph. D. from Brown University, he has published widely in development economics, finance and banking, and on East Asia and Latin America. He is the author of several books, including Lessons of East Asia (U. of Michigan Press), Stuck in the Middle (Brookings Institution), and Globalization and Growth and more than 50 refereed and published articles in journals and other outlets. He is frequent contributor to VoxEU, Project Syndicate, and other media, and he has appeared on Bloomberg, BBC, an CCTV and Korean TV as expert commentator.
Chapter 3: Recessions and Recoveries in Labor Markets: Patterns, Policies, and Responses to the COVID-19 Shock
The labor market fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic shock continues, with young and lower-skilled workers particularly hard-hit. This chapter examines the labor market consequences of the crisis, how it compares with previous shocks, and how policies can help. Preexisting employment trends favoring a shift away from jobs that are more vulnerable to automation are accelerating. Policy support for job retention is extremely powerful at reducing scarring and mitigating the unequal impacts from the acute pandemic shock. As the pandemic subsides and the recovery normalizes, a switch toward worker reallocation support measures could help reduce unemployment more quickly and ease the adjustment to the permanent effects of the COVID-19 shock on the labor market.
Chapter 3 Presenter:
Francesca Caselli is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF Research Department. Previously, she worked in the Systemic Issues Division of the Research Department and in the European Department, participating to Article IV missions to Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Before joining the IMF, she worked at the OECD and visited the Bank of Italy. She holds a Ph.D. in International Economics from the Graduate Institute in Geneva.
Chapter 3 Discussant:
Kristen Broady is a Fellow with the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program. She is the Barron Hilton Endowed Full Professor of Financial Economics on leave at Dillard University in New Orleans. She previously served as Visiting Professor of Economics at Howard University, Alabama A&M University, Department Chair of Business and Economics at Fort Valley State University, Vice Provost for Graduate Studies at Kentucky State University and as a visiting faculty member at Jiangsu Normal University in Xuzhou, China. Dr. Broady served as a consultant for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C.; a senior research fellow for the Center for Global Policy Solutions in Washington, D.C.; a consultant for the City of East Point, Georgia and as an HBCU consultant for season two of The Quad on Black Entertainment Television (BET) in Atlanta. Her areas of research include racial wealth disparities, mortgage foreclosure risk, labor and automation, and racial health disparities. She earned a BA in criminal justice at Alcorn State University and an MBA and PhD in business administration with a major in economics at Jackson State University.
