It's becoming a little tougher to rely on pandemic data now. Reporting from most, if not all, US jurisdictions is infrequent plus misses most of the home test results; we know individuals generally aren't going to report their home rapid test results. Furthermore, testing around the globe is likely worse, driven additionally by lack of testing resources.
So, to satisfy my craving for data I've had to turn to a bit of a jigsaw puzzle strategy to assemble data pieces into a big picture.
Friends Across the Pond, Plus Some CDC Data
Europe, though with different pandemic epidemiologic drivers, has helped to foreshadow events in the US. I turned to England's poop patrol first. The image below is one of many from the UK's excellent reporting system; focus on the blue line depicting England's viral concentration in wastewater through early March.
What you see are viral levels, mostly representing the BA.2 omicron subvariant, coming down to what was seen at the low point last October. I find this particularly encouraging because this downtrend is happening without British healthcare system overload. Furthermore, R value (reproductive number) in the UK also is heading down. (This last link is only for hardcore pandemic geeks, at the website you then need to download a spreadsheet and study the data.)
In the US, it's hard to find much about the pandemic in the lay press, probably a combination of other important news, less data, and overall pandemic fatigue. The screenshot below is from the CDC's variant tracker; note the striking and rapid appearance of BA.2.
Again, what is a hopeful sign is that we have seen BA.2 virtually take over most of the country, but without a rapid rise in healthcare resource strain. The fully assembled puzzle may be showing us that while BA.2 rapidly became the predominant strain, it did not result in a major illness surge. The next few weeks in the US will reveal a clearer picture.
But Wait, There's More
I was super-excited to see the FDA's new industry guidance for COVID-19 vaccination, the first update in about a year. Other than the vaccine industry, I may be the only other person to be thrilled to see this guidance. The press and even most of my healthcare alerts seem to have ignored it. It's pretty dense, boring reading, but the meat is in Appendix 2 on page 21 where the approach to vaccines for new variants is discussed. Although the FDA always has a disclaimer that these are all nonbinding recommendations, you can bet Pfizer, Moderna, and the other vaccine players will be paying close attention to this roadmap for future trials, likely later this year.
I deliberately chose the term "omen" at the top of this post, feeling like I may as well be reading tea leaves or using similar methods to divine the future. Nonetheless, my puzzle work today reminds me to look forward to my summer vacation with our 1000-piece jigsaw puzzle, this one with a bunch of trees that all look alike. If our plans stay intact, we'll have (and need) the whole family working on this one.
