Skip to content

I regularly read Ron Charles's Washington Post Friday Book Club newsletter, always chock full of interesting topics and writers I haven't yet explored. This Friday he included a quote from controversial (accused of plagiarism) Turkish author and activist Elif Shafak

“... we are living in a world in which there is way too much information, but little knowledge and even less wisdom.… As we scroll up and down, more out of habit than out of anything else, we have no time to process what we see. No time to absorb or reflect or feel. Hyper-information gives us the illusion of knowledge. For true knowledge to be attained we need to slow down. We need cultural spaces, literary festivals, an open and honest intellectual exchange.”

This blog is my attempt to machete a trail through all the various forms of information and provide some bridge to knowledge and wisdom by providing links to reliable original sources. Speaking of which, we are now in the midst of ID Week, probably the most prestigious annual infectious diseases research conference, and many of my regular ID feeds are filled with reports of presentations. However, I virtually never include these reports in this blog, because there is no way via these abstracts to look for potential flaws or limitations in the research, and it is well known that research meeting presentation findings often change dramatically by the time they are published in a peer-reviewed journal, if they are ever published at all.

WRIS

Still pretty quiet on the Winter Respiratory Infection Season, with some hints of beginnings of influenza and RSV increasing. Perhaps the only item of interest is an increase in Mycoplasma pneumoniae activity, probably just a regular wave that tends to happen with this pathogen, though delayed somewhat due to pandemic mitigation strategies. It's not a reportable disease, so it's hard to find good data on incidence over time. As most providers know, this is a self-limited illness that produces generally mild illness (so-called walking pneumonia) and usually not worth diagnosing or treating. Because of its self-limited nature, it's been difficult to demonstrate any benefit of antibiotic treatment compared to placebo, and I doubt we'll see any placebo-controlled randomized trials in the near future.

Compared to last winter, CDC is predicting a 54% chance of a similar combined peak of respiratory illnesses, with a 28% chance of a lower peak and 18% chance of a higher peak.

Infectious Complications of Hurricanes

These tend to get less coverage than do the more obvious loss of life and property destruction occurring immediately during a natural disaster, but the Florida Department of Health is now reporting on a surge in cases of necrotizing fasciitis due to Vibrio vulnificus, a known salt and brackish water pathogen. Here are the numbers:

As a reminder, individuals with immunodeficiencies, but also particularly including chronic liver or renal disease, are at high risk for V. vulnificus complications. CDC has a good summary.

Conjunctivitis

Researchers in Colorado looked at about 200 children with acute conjunctivitis compared to a similar number of children who were either healthy or had URI without conjunctival involvement. Long story short, they found no benefit of ophthalmic ointment treatment, but did see a 20% incidence of antibiotic side effects. The study itself didn't replicate real-world situations for providers; for example, they employed broad spectrum PCR testing looking for a large number of bacteria and viruses. The study doesn't give us much direction for practical approaches to this problem but does serve as a reminder to limit topical and other antibiotic use in acute conjunctivitis in children,

Outpatient Infant Botulism?

I would never have thought of this, I've only been called for hospitalized children with infant botulism. It turns out, though, that there are rare instances of milder disease managed as outpatients. A team reviewing the California Department of Public Health data from 1976 - 2021 found 17 of 4372 cases (0.4%) were outpatients. (Note that California cases account for about 1/3 of all US infant botulism cases.) Here's the breakdown of clinical findings.

The median age at onset of symptoms was 20 weeks, with a range of 6 - 55 weeks. Only 1 child had been exposed to honey.

Polio Updates

The second round of novel oral polio type 2 vaccinations have begun in Gaza, though I haven't heard much about ceasefires to help facilitate this critical second round. Meanwhile, this week the Global Polio Elimination Initiative had to bow to reality and revise plans and timeline for polio elimination worldwide. Now, the end of 2027 is the target for elimination of wild poliovirus infections, with end of 2029 for elimination of type 2 vaccine-derived polio. This will take significantly more funding, and the greater the risk of prolonged or new wars the less likely these targets will be achieved.

The DIKW Pyramid

I'm accustomed to using the evidence-based medicine pyramid for hierarchies of study design in medicine, but in researching Dr. Shafak's quote about wisdom I happened onto the Data, Information, Knowledge, and Wisdom pyramid. It doesn't appear to incorporate anything about the role of false or misleading data, so I'm not sure if it is a helpful model in our era. As artificial intelligence becomes more entrenched (it's impossible to remove that view from Google Chrome!), we need to be even more vigilant about our data sources.

HAL 9000 looks a lot like my doorbell. Yikes!

Well, not exactly, and directionally it's more like my front yard. On February 1 the Maryland Department of Health issued a press release of a measles case in a recent international traveler who resides in my Maryland county, listing an apartment complex with my same home zip code as a site of potential exposure. Details are lacking, and I do note the DOH still hasn't sent a notice to Maryland licensed physicians. Keeping my fingers crossed there are no secondary cases.

Last Summer's Vibrio vulnificus Flurry

CDC reported on last summer's burst of V. vulnificus infections across 3 states, a total of 11 severe cases occurring during heat waves in residents of Connecticut, New York, and North Carolina. Median age was 70, and 5 people died. Of the 10 with available information, all had at least 1 underlying risk factor for severe Vibrio infection, including diabetes (3), cancer (3), heart disease (3), history of alcoholism (3), and hematologic disease (2). While the clusters can't be blamed definitely on the heat, Vibrio growth is augmented in warm water; we may see an increase in Vibrio infections associated with climate change.

An impaired reticuloendothelial system (including liver disease from any cause) is a big risk factor; high risk individuals should be warned about avoiding contact with brackish water, salt water, and raw seafood (2 cases last summer had raw oysters as only known exposure).

Late Treatment for Congenital CMV

A new report from the Collaborative Antiviral Study Group reported on a phase 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 6 weeks of oral valganciclovir for infants 1 month to 3 years of age with congenital CMV infection and sensorineural hearing loss. Although the treatment group had much lower urine and salivary viral loads during treatment, there was no difference in hearing outcomes compared to the placebo group. Back to the drawing board.

Diphtheria in Africa

It looks like diphtheria is going to be a big problem for some time to come. WHO lists major diphtheria outbreaks in Nigeria (the most cases), Guinea, Niger, Mauritania, and South Africa. The cumulative total of suspected cases is 27,991 with 828 deaths. For those of you needing a little help with African geography, here's what it looks like:

So, this is not just clusters related geographically, but rather scattered throughout the continent. Cases were more prominent in the pediatric ages, and about a quarter of the cases were fully immunized. The numbers could be much higher given the difficulties in diagnosing diphtheria in resource-poor settings.

Bad E. coli in China

Although I'm never happy to hear about new virulent and resistant organisms, I was particularly unhappy about this news for a few reasons. First, it is a hypervirulent strain, apparently more likely to cause severe invasive infections. Second, it carries carbapenem resistance, often our last relatively safe resource in the antibiotic armamentarium for multiply resistant Gram negative bacteria. Worse is that 13% of these carbapenem-resistant organisms did not express a known carbapenem resistance gene, suggesting other perhaps new resistance mechanisms might be present. Lastly, these organisms caused a prolonged outbreak in a children's hospital.

You can see this outbreak occurred a few years ago, but I don't think we've heard the last of this.

WRIS

I'm looking forward to the week when I can retire a regular update on Winter Respiratory Infection Season. For now we have some encouragement but still too early to tell which way we're headed, especially with covid since our data sources are less reliable/predictive.

We seem to be over the hump with RSV season, still plenty out there but we tend not to see late rebounds with RSV.

Flu is a mixed bag depending on locale, but seems to be headed downward overall.

The covid wastewater report doesn't look too bad, either.

JN.1 is the predominant variant in most places now. I include a graph from the UK just because it's pretty.

We also have some other good news on the covid front: the fall vaccine seems to have high effectiveness (54%; 95% CI 46-60%) against development of symptomatic infection in immunocompetent adults. The study covered the time period September 2023 - January 2024 so is very recent and includes the time of JN.1 variant predominance.

Squirrel Wars 2.0

Speaking of my front yard, it is the new site of my war to keep squirrels away from my bird feeder, first mentioned in these pages on January 14. You recall that the capsaicin-laced safflower seeds, advertised as obnoxious to squirrels, turned out to be a delightful snack for those obnoxious rodents here. I tried to access research proven methods for preventing squirrels from eating all the bird food, but sadly there doesn't appear to be a trove of studies to guide me; in other words, no such thing as evidence-based squirrel medicine.

However, many sites mentioned trying to choose a site for a feeder that is beyond the reach of a typical squirrel's jumping prowess of 5 feet upward from the ground, 7 feet across, and 9 feet downward. After much thought, we selected a site in a large front yard tree. Armed with my long-suffering wife's long tree branch cutters and her assistance, 2 rickety ladders, slippery wire, packaging tape, and an autographed baseball from my youngest son's youth baseball team (circa 1990's, I was the official scorekeeper since I was too uncoordinated to be a coach), I succeeded in placing it in the perfect place with only minimal self-injury. Passersby seemed alternately amused and alarmed. If this works, I should get a MacArthur genius grant.

2

Yes, I know this blog always deals with bugs, but this time I'm referring to the slightly larger bug forms. I think I saw my first Phoebis sennae in Maryland on Friday. My wife and I had taken advantage of the unusually delightful weather to make a dash to the West River in Maryland for some kayaking. I wasn't expecting to see a butterfly haven but happened on a flutter of butterflies right beside a public boat launch area.

First I guess I should mention the other creatures you expect to hear about in these pages, recognizing that viruses aren't considered life forms so maybe are not analogous to butterflies.

Pediatric Mpox

A new article nicely describes Mpox in the pediatric population. Multiple investigators from the WHO focused on the 1.3% of Mpox cases globally that occurred in individuals under 18 years of age. Only 1 ICU admission and 0 deaths were reported. Mode of acquisition below shows that contact with infected individuals and contaminated material predominated in younger children, while sexual encounters were most common in adolescents. Some of the analysis was limited by lack of complete data such as sexual history and, to a lesser extent, clinical findings. I don't think this study included US patients, but they have been reported separately a year ago.

Vaccination Against Disease X

No, this isn't something Elon Musk (he of the bizarre fascination with the 24th letter of the alphabet) came up with. Here, Disease X refers to unknown pathogens with the potential to cause pandemics. The University of Oxford just announced US$80 million in funding to continue research on the ChAdOx technology used for the Oxford - AstraZeneca covid vaccine marketed as Novavax in the US. This vaccine was associated with rare thromboembolic events and is no longer available in the US and UK. Let's hope future pandemic preparation continues to receive funding.

COVID Variant Hand-Wringing

I still see a lot of attention to covid variants, which is appropriate, but it must be tempered by the observation that the numbers are very low. Of course, any interpretation of these numbers must be made with the recognition that cases, hospitalizations, and even deaths are not being tracked in the same way as at the height of the pandemic and thus difficult to compare to prior numbers.

The BA.2.86 variant is a major focus in spite of its very small numbers. As I've mentioned before, this attention is due to the large number of mutations that could improve its ability to escape immunity from vaccines and prior infection. The latest CDC assessment again states that there is no evidence it causes more severe disease, and the main question is still immune escape and "fitness" qualities, i.e. how well it can outcompete other variants to become predominant.

The UK has a more detailed analysis (I think I'm becoming favorably biased towards the UK reports). Here's a timeline of the current 27 BA.2.86 cases identified worldwide so far. Note that for a BA.2.86 case to be identified, the infected individual would first need to undergo testing and then have that sample sequenced, so just the tip of the iceberg here.

BA.2.86 also has been seen in wastewater samples all over the world for some time. Here is an assessment from the UK: "...the variant is present in multiple countries on multiple continents, detected at a low prevalence amongst clinical cases or in wastewater. Although an increasing number of countries are reporting detection, there is as yet no clear signal of growth within any of these individual countries...No conclusions can be drawn about the fitness of the variant based on this data, and a full range of options – from less fit than other circulating variants, to a large jump in fitness – are still possible, given the available data."

As always, stay tuned.

Number Needed to Vaccinate for Covid Vaccine

To continue in my Anglophilic vein, the UK also provided a wonderful analysis of NNV. I copied one of their tables here (IS denotes immunosuppression):

The NNV reflects the number of individuals in those categories that would need to be vaccinated to prevent one additional hospitalization. The NNV is lower in the immunosuppressed and elderly populations. The estimates don't go below age 15; as you may be aware, vaccination of children in the UK is less of a priority than in the US, so it's hard to get NNV in young children in the UK.

In general, if one looks at covid vaccination at the individual level, at every age the benefit/risk ratio of the vaccine outweigh those of natural covid infection. From a population health perspective, the cost of vaccination to society increases when younger age groups are included in the analysis.

Vibrio vulnificus

CDC issued a health alert advisory this past week. If you are unfamiliar with severe infection related to V. vulnificus, please read this. Most notable and perhaps underemphasized in the lay press are the risk factors for severe, life-threatening disease: diabetes, immunocompromised states, and liver disease. Make sure your patients with these risk factors are aware of steps to avoid this infection and what to do if early signs develop. The infection can move very rapidly in these high-risk patients.

Vladimir and Me

I'm speaking of Nabokov, the writer. He is most known (and in some misguided circles, despised) for his novel Lolita, published in 1955 (1958 in the US). Fewer people are aware that he was an accomplished lepidopterist. The September 4 issue of the New Yorker reprinted a 1948 essay where he extolls the delight of butterflies and related creatures. Who knew that a mixture of molasses, beer, and rum applied to tree trunks attracts hungry moths at night? Read the essay if you have a chance, I think limited free access is available to non-subscribers. You'll experience some incredible writing, even if you aren't convinced to love butterflies and moths.

Phoebis sennae courtesy of the US Forest Service.