This is not an immediate game-changer, but the possibility of an oral treatment for COVID-19 disease is a hopeful harbinger of a new era in the pandemic.
Molnupiravir - What is It, and What Do We Know About It?
According to the manufacturer, molnupiravir was named after Mjolnir, which, as all fans of Norse mythology or Marvel Comics know, is Thor's hammer. Unfortunately all we know about the recent study results is from the manufacturer's press release, not exactly an unbiased source. It states that the study was stopped early following a predetermined interim analysis that showed benefit of the drug compared to placebo in adults with mild to moderate COVID-19. The drug group showed 28/385 recipients hospitalized (no deaths occurred) at the 29-day follow-up period versus 53/377 in the placebo group, which included 8 deaths. Adverse events were similar in drug versus placebo recipients. I'm giving you the raw numbers to show you that these are relatively small numbers of people with short-term follow-up, so we still want to hear more about this, presumably from the FDA after data are submitted to them.
Molnupiravir is in the nucleoside analog drug class which also includes several anti-HIV and other antiviral drugs. The manufacturer states that it has efficacy against variants including delta. Although the overall efficacy might be considered modest at best, the availability of an oral treatment for COVID-19 could have a major impact in the US as well as globally. Several other manufacturers have studies of oral SARS-CoV-2 drugs in progress. This is just the start of what promises to be a real step forward. Of course, vaccinating the unimmunized will have the biggest impact on the pandemic, much more than any therapeutic intervention.
Is the End of the Surge in Sight?
If you look at almost any measure, new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection are heading down lately, but what does this mean? The interpretation is tough because it's hard to know a unifying explanation for why things are heading down at this time. If you want to keep track of things, I'd recommend the CDC Data Tracker and, within that, the percent test positivity rates are probably most helpful. The New York Times continues their highly interactive data monitoring that can give you a quick look at local and regional numbers though not direct percent positivity rates.