I was very underwhelmed by Oxford University's recently announced Word of the Year. Listening to last week's FDA VRBPAC discussion of RSV vaccines, another word kept cropping up time after time. More on that later.
Covid Updates
I had mixed feelings when I learned that the Netherlands had started a Long COVID Kids Choir, apparently also active in the UK and the US. On the one hand, it's great that these children have on outlet to express themselves, but on the other hand it reminds me how little we know about this condition.
On a more uniformly upbeat note, new data are available for effectiveness of the Pfizer XBB vaccine in children 5 - 17 years of age. This was a retrospective study from Kaiser Permanente Southern California looking at acute respiratory infection visits from October, 2023, through April, 2024. Because of the study design (standard test-negative case-control study) we only have odds ratios to describe results; number needed to vaccinate can be estimated from odds ratios with fudge factors, but I'm reluctant to go there. Here's the summary:
Basically, the vaccine was very effective in preventing hospital admission and ED/urgent care visits in this age group.
Temporal Thermometers Not the Greatest
Temperature measurement using temporal thermometers is pretty much a tradeoff - convenience versus accuracy. A new study from 5 EDs in a single system (apparently Mass General but hard to tell from the article) looked at around 1400 children who had both temporal and oral or rectal temperatures measured at the same time (within 30 minutes). The findings are summarized here; note mean discordance of about 1.5 F. Researchers found that age < 12 years was was associated with discordance.
The authors found that self-reported race was not a risk factor, important because skin color could plausibly affect temporal measurements. As an interesting aside, Black children were more likely to have temporal temps only, even correcting for severity of presenting complaint.
Avian Flu
I'm keeping a wary eye on new progress, mostly because I'm worried that not enough resources are being devoted to monitoring the situation. One new report provides helpful information. Two dairy farms voluntarily allowed investigators to look at prevalence and spread of influenza A H5N1 in their settings. Here's the "graphical abstract::
The authors mention the rarity of these types of studies possibly due to farm owners' worries about harm to their businesses from publicity about avian flu spread in their dairies.
CDC provided genetic sequencing information about the virus infecting the child in California who apparently has no known avian flu exposure risks. Analysis suggested that the strain was very similar to those previously seen in dairy and poultry farms as well as in humans, but they were unable to perform complete sequencing that could have allowed further tracking of the source of this child's infection. I guess due to privacy concerns, we have very little clinical information about this case. I'm even wondering how the child's strain came to be tested for H5N1 in the first place since not every influenza A detection undergoes further testing.
Regardless of uncertainties, these most recent reports do not suggest we need to heighten concern for human to human transmission of A H5N1.
DRC Mystery Disease
Shortly after my post last Sunday, WHO released a new update with a few more details but still no big findings. I can't even find their case definition anywhere. The initial statements that respiratory symptoms predominated would seem to make malaria, where positive tests have been seen in preliminary testing, a less likely explanation. Malnutrition seems to be a significant risk factor.
WRIS
Winter Respiratory Infection Season continues to mount with moderate level activity in the US driven primarily by RSV.
Epidemic trending (modeling data for predictions, from the same link as above) shows continued growth for covid ...
.... and especially for influenza.
It's still not too late for flu vaccine. Expect a surge soon if not already started in your area.
RSV Vaccine Conundrum
I was glued to my screen for much of last Thursday's FDA VRBPAC meeting, with the majority of the session devoted to discussion of pediatric RSV vaccine progress, or lack thereof. As I've mentioned in previous posts, RSV vaccine development for children was set back by a tragic trial in the 1960s where vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory disease (VAERD) resulted in 2 deaths of children who received vaccine and then subsequently were infected with wild-type RSV the following season. Through many scientific advances over the years, researchers determined that the cause of this enhanced disease was immunologic in nature, related to the vaccine causing recipients to develop a strong cellular immune response involving a specific class of T cells (Th2). This finding even influenced development of the mRNA covid vaccines which deliberately avoided this and ensured a Th1-predominant response and very safe vaccines.
Unfortunately, recent experiences in trials for Moderna RSV vaccines suggested that VAERD might be occurring in children under 2 years of age. Moderna was developing 2 mRNA RSV vaccines, 1 for RSV alone and another that also incorporated a human metapneumovirus vaccine. They were enrolling children in a phase 1 study this summer when the concerning signal arose. I am including slides from the FDA presentation. Here's the study overview and timeline of events this summer, from slide numbers 11 and 12.
I included the above to demonstrate that the safety constraints incorporated into the study worked exactly as intended. Enrollment was paused pending evaluation of the events, which is still ongoing. The imbalance between vaccine and placebo recipients is highlighted below:
Note the small number of children in the study, appropriate and typical for phase 1 trials. However, that makes analysis more difficult. I'll cut to the conundrum chase. Preliminary immunologic studies from patients in the Moderna trials suggest that the vaccine, as planned, produced Th1-predominant responses, and that the mechanism of the possible VAERD events is not due to Th2-primed cells. Furthermore, other immunologic data don't provide another plausible information for why this happened.
Of course, with so few trial subjects, it's possible that this imbalance of severe disease could be due to chance alone. Regardless, Moderna officials announced that they would be abandoning the mRNA RSV vaccine development but will continue to follow all the children already enrolled in their studies and perform further immunologic and other testing.
So, where does that leave us with RSV prevention? This took up much of the VRBPAC's discussion time. It's important to understand that the Moderna RSV vaccines were part of a larger group of pediatric RSV vaccines in various stages of development, 26 in all. Fifteen of these are live attenuated vaccines, and it should be noted that live-attenuated vaccines have never been shown to result in VAERD, with extensive validation for why that hasn't occurred. (I might add that your dog's kennel cough vaccine might contain one of these. Although Bordetella bronchiseptica is the most recognized cause of kennel cough, canine adenovirus - 2 and parainfluenza virus 5 are other common causes of kennel cough and also have been included in some intranasal dog vaccines for decades. Presumably most of us have been exposed to our dogs' live attenuated vaccine PIV5 strain many times, yet no human VAERD involving parainfluenza virus has ever been described.)
It is likely that future pediatric RSV trials will need to be judged on an even more individual basis, perhaps with separate constructs governing the various platform differences (live attenuated, viral-vectored, mRNA if anyone moves forward with this, and subunit protein) as well as mode of delivery - mucosal (intranasal) versus systemic by injection. In the meantime, we know that maternal immunization is highly effective, as is the infant monoclonal antibody nirsevimab. In that light, we also need development of newer monoclonal antibody products in case nirsevimab resistance appears, as well as better maternal vaccines that won't be so limited in timing of administration during pregnancy. Work is ongoing in all of these venues.
Conundrum
Of course I had to look into the origins of the word, but it turns out there is a lot of disagreement about this. I was most delighted to see the word explained as a "burlesque imitation of scholastic Latin." I was unaware that it was the title of a Jethro Tull instrumental song (I'm not much of a Tull fan) and an episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation (I am a fan, but don't remember the episode).
Have a great week, and don't forgot to offer flu and covid vaccines to your patients and families.