Skip to content

I've been thinking for a while about taking a break to reassess this blog. First, I'm not sure if the focus is optimal and whether this blog serves any unique function that isn't available elsewhere on the web. Second, I've not been happy with the design of the web site for some time, plus I've heard about problems with the subscription sign up widget not working now. I don't know that there is any good time for a pause, but now seems pretty good both from my schedule and from covid's (unpredictable) schedule.

I expect this may take at least a month or so - I want to work within the GWU system where my site is housed to look at tracking data and fixes available there, as well as to think about an entirely new site if I do decide to continue. I will provide an update post when I have a better idea of timing.

At the time I am writing this, we are all waiting for expected FDA approval of this fall's covid vaccines directed against the XBB lineage. ACIP has a meeting set for September 12 to discuss this, so I expect FDA's notice any second now! Also watch for the ACIP meeting on maternal RSV vaccination on September 22.

Nothing strikingly new on the variant front. Press releases from Pfizer and Moderna state their fall vaccines offer some immunity against BA.2.86 in addition to XBB lineages, and investigators have announced (on social media!) similar good news from in vitro studies. As usual, I'm waiting for actual data that I can assess myself.

Here is a quick update on noteworthy items from this week:

Influenza vaccine 2023 preliminary effectiveness in southern hemisphere looks very good, especially for kids. This bodes well for those who elect to receive flu vaccine for the upcoming season.

Covid variant BA.2.86 caused an outbreak in a nursing home in the East of England region of the UK - in the link, scroll down about 1/3 of the way. The attack rate was 86.6% (33 of 38 residents); so far 22 of the 33 positives have been sequenced and are BA.2.86. 29 of the 33 had received a spring covid vaccine booster. Only 1 resident required hospitalization. From the limited data presented, it appears that this very high risk population had relatively mild courses of illness.

During my hiatus, you may want to look at a few of those gazillion sites that I've found useful.

ProMED - https://promedmail.org/

CIDRAP Newsletter - https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/newsletter

CDC COVID Data Tracker - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

CDC Health Alert Network - https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/updates.asp

Biobot Network of Wastewater Treatment Plants (includes both covid and mpox) - https://biobot.io/data/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

United Kingdom COVID notifications - https://www.gov.uk/email-signup?topic=/coronavirus-taxon

Remember that comparing covid numbers now to those from last winter or prior years can be very misleading because of dismantling of some tracking systems as well as unreported home testing and lack of testing in general. Even covid tracking for ED visits, hospitalizations, and deaths all are significantly changed. Probably only the wastewater methodology has remained similar over the few years, so I'm watching those trends more closely.

And one final optimistic note I picked up from David Brooks of the NY Times in his August 31 opinion piece (subscription required). The title was "People are More Generous Than You Think" and he referred to a scientific publication in a psychology journal that I found pretty surprising. For all I know he cherry-picked this article to come up with a heartening message, I didn't take the time to do a formal lit search and I certainly don't keep up with this subject matter.

In the study, almost 200 people in total, from 3 low-income and 4 high-income countries, were selected to receive $10,000 for whatever they wanted to use if for. The only strings attached were that they must report to the investigators how they used the money and they agreed to be randomized to either share their use of the money on Twitter or keep quiet about what they used it for. The investigators figured that the group publicizing this on Twitter would spend less of the money on themselves. That wasn't the case however. On average the individuals spent $6400 of the total on others, including $1700 on charitable donations. By and large, spending of those from lower income countries didn't differ that much from the higher income group, though the latter had slightly higher gifts to charity. The article really brightened my day, take a peek at it.

Take care and stay well,

Bud

It's my usual Sunday to put the final touches on this week's post though working on it earlier than my usual late morning start since I had to watch the Women's World Cup soccer match. In case you recorded it to watch later, I won't reveal any spoilers.

It's Official for Nirsevimab

On August 3 the ACIP voted to recommend the long-acting monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (brand name Beyfortus) to prevent RSV. It is recommended for use in all infants under 8 months of age, just before or during the RSV season, and also for infants 8-19 months of age with the usual high-risk medical conditions just before their second RSV season. Dr. Mandy Cohen, the new CDC director, formally adopted those recommendations. It will eventually replace the current product, palivizumab (Synagis), which has been administered just to the high-risk groups monthly during RSV season.

I didn't log in to the ACIP meeting but did review the slides and reports (available here). Most of the information had already seen the light of day at the prior FDA meeting that approved the product, but a few items are noteworthy.

First, authorities now refer to this product as a vaccine, although that's not quite true in the scientific sense. This is a strategy to try to have this funded by the Vaccines for Children program. The product will be very expensive (probably around $450 - 500 for a dose), and even standard health insurance companies are notorious in avoiding reimbursement for new products.

For infants born just before or during RSV season, nirsevimab would best be administered by the birthing hospital prior to discharge. I was surprised to learn that only 10% of US birthing hospitals participate in the VFC program. Most provide bundled services for deliveries; hepatitis B vaccine is often covered in this manner, but that cost is only $13-16 per dose. Will bundling work for a much more expensive product? These payment issues could impact ability to administer the new therapy particularly for the upcoming RSV season. There isn't much time to figure out these details.

Presentations from CDC personnel helped show the potential impact of nirsevimab, using a Number Needed to Immunize (again with the vaccine nomenclature). Based on the available 2 randomized controlled trials in mostly healthy infants, where ICU admissions were rare and deaths thankfully absent in the study infants, NNI was favorable particularly for preventing hospitalization but also for prevention of medically-attended illness.

In other words, 128 infants would need to receive nirsevimab to prevent 1 additional child from being hospitalized for RSV. Various cost-effectiveness analyses showed this to be a good use of funds.

Data are not yet available to perform similar analyses for high-risk infants receiving therapy prior to their second RSV season, but antibody levels in those infants following treatment strongly suggest it will be effective.

CDC will provide us with more detailed recommendations soon. They did provide an example of timing for "vaccination" with nirsevimab. As mentioned above, for children born just before or during RSV season (October 1 through March 31 in most parts of the US), nirsevimab would be administered at birth. Otherwise, administration would be timed for the well-child checks in primary care provider offices, perhaps in October and November. The October batch could include infants born the previous April (at their 6-month visit), June (4-month visit), and August (2-month visit). Infants born the previous May (6-month visit), July (4-month visit), and September (2-month visit) would receive their dose in November. A bit complicated, but at the moment I can't think of a better plan to make this run smoothly for office practices.

We also need guidance if FDA approves the maternal RSV vaccine for pregnant people. Providing nirsevimab to infants whose mothers were vaccinated during pregnancy is probably unnecessary. FDA is supposed to decide this month on the maternal RSV vaccine once they receive updated results from the ongoing trials.

Regardless, all pediatric healthcare providers need to stay tuned; this could be a major change in office practice this fall.

Don't Go Home With the Armadillo, etc.

A case report of possble authochthonous leprosy in central Florida reminds us that, Jerry Jeff Walker notwithstanding, one can acquire leprosy in the US without having contact with humans or armadillos with leprosy. The report and other epidemiologic evidence suggests that leprosy may be endemic in southeastern US.

Cold air might aid in croup treatment according to a new randomized controlled trial in an emergency department. In addition to treatment with dexamethasone, children with croup were randomized (not in a blinded fashion, obviously) to outside cold air for 30 minutes, compared to room temperature indoors. The cold air kids seemed to improve faster.

Conflict in My Favorite Medical Feed

I've been reading ProMED posts several times a day for years and have donated funds to them during that time. They were the first to report all 3 coronavirus outbreaks this century. I was a bit disappointed to learn recently that they will start charging a subscription fee but was resigned to the fact that I'd be shelling out a few more bucks. Now I've learned there's a big kerfuffle in the background. The frontline folks who do all the work are protesting new management moves. I hope this is resolved, I can't imagine life without ProMED.

'Demic Doldrums

No big changes this week, CDC numbers are similar to last week and all indicators point to an increase in SARS-CoV-2 activity in the US and elsewhere. Not to rely too much on anecdotal data, but my own primary care provider remarked to me at a visit last week that he has seen an upswing in positive tests in his practice. Let's hope this will be a minor blip and not the start of a large new wave.

Some Good News From Down Under

Again, no soccer spoilers from me. But, maybe flu has peaked in Australia; if so, this season is a bit better than 2022 and might bode well for our own flu season.