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I'm not sure I'd put this in the same celebratory category as a new year's event (January 29 is Vietnamese new year and Chinese new year for 2025), but it is noteworthy. WHO publicizes this day, and it might surprise some in the US that we had 369 new US cases detected in 2023, including 4 children. Here's a global map:

Leprosy still is one of the most stigmatized diseases in the world, fed by rumor and superstition. WHO is a good source for factual information. Speaking of WHO ...

US Quits WHO - What Does This Mean?

Well, this executive order doesn't mean anything immediately, assuming the new administration doesn't somehow violate the agreement for giving a year's notice to WHO before leaving. The US is obligated to pay for 2025. I have no direct experience with WHO, but it is well-known to be a large bureaucracy with the usual ponderous systems that this brings. I did find some better information from one of the many information sources I read, this one written by epidemiologist Dr. Katelyn Jetelina. She previously worked at WHO in Geneva, and her January 23 post provides more insight into how the loss of US funding for WHO might impact world health. She documents many problems with the WHO, but also provides a stark look at what the loss of US funds could portend. The US is the largest donor to WHO.

I'm hoping cooler heads will prevail and this exit won't go through.

MMWR Disappears

I've been subscribing to CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report for more than 40 years, way back to when the paper copy came to me in snail mail every week. The communications embargo for health information, detailed in a memo by the acting Secretary for HHS, put a hold until February 1 on federal agencies issuing any information that hasn't been reviewed by a presidential appointee. The memo does allow for exceptions that include critical information, again requiring some sort of political appointee approval.

The MMWR isn't particularly controversial in my mind. I read it every week, but I suspect most healthcare providers don't keep it on their nightstands, or whatever that equivalent is in today's digital world. As of now, the current issue is listed as January 16, with nothing about a January 23 edition. Presumably we will miss January 30 as well.

I'm not so worried about this now, I'm sure we'd hear if we need to take any urgent action with bird flu or other emergency, but I am concerned about whether political censorship will affect the credibility of this information in the long run. I can still remember the chaos early in 2020 and the insistence by some of the value of hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and even bleach as effective treatments.

And, speaking of avian flu ...

Avian Flu Update (without CDC)

The Infectious Diseases Society of America broadcast a bird flu webinar, usually done in conjunction with CDC, but this time CDC wasn't mentioned in the title and none of the speakers had CDC appointments. I was able to attend the session in its entirety, and the recording and slides are available to everyone. In spite of the official CDC absence, the speakers were bona fide experts, and I learned several things.

The molecular difference between highly pathogenic avian influenza and low (not lowly) pathogenic strains (slide 6):

Recent global spread of HPAI by wild birds (slide 11):

Spread to dairy cows facilitated by excellent replication in mammary glands and transmission among cows mainly via milking machines (slide 16):

Experience in California suggests that conjunctival swabs may have higher yield of H5N1 than nasopharyngeal swabs (slide 37):

Remember that conjunctivitis is common (80%) in current human cases of H5N1 but is not a prominent feature of seasonal influenza.

Sequencing of strains from human cases in California suggest that the human cases arose by independent cattle-to-human infection events (slide 40), explained by the red dots below appearing in separate phylogenetic trees:

Also some discussion ensued about various testing options. The short version is that none of the tests are approved for conjunctival specimens, and the sensitivity of various tests to identify influenza A H5 is uncertain. Also unknown is whether testing costs in commercial labs would be covered by various insurance plans.

The penultimate presentation was by Bethany Boggess Alcauter, PhD, from the National Center for Farmworker Health. She provided a unique perspective that enlightened me greatly. It starts with slide 72. It was very clear that farmworkers have difficult jobs with little labor protections (below is slides 75-78):

One can easily imagine how tough it is to monitor and manage infections in these workers who now have the added burden of being more targeted for deportation.

A final presentation by Dr. Richard Webby from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital summed up in slides 86 and 87 the current understanding of H5N1 evolution and how difficult it will be to predict the future:

Antibiotics Can't Beat Cold Steel for Appendicitis

Moving away from various pandemic and political concerns for a moment, a new randomized controlled trial suggests that medical therapy alone is inferior to appendectomy (aka appendicectomy in the article) for management of uncomplicated appendicitis in children 5-16 years of age. This was a multinational study at 11 sites (2 in the US) that enrolled a little over 900 children with suspected non-perforated appendicitis.

Prior studies have suggested antibiotic therapy alone is an acceptable management pathway, and I suspect we haven't heard the last on this issue. For now I'd go with surgical intervention as the better alternative.

WRIS

With the muzzle on federal authorities releasing new data, I was interested to see what my usual information sites had available to me this week to monitor winter respiratory viral infection activity. I'm happy to report that the CDC's Respiratory Illnesses Data Channel was updated on Friday as per usual.

The NREVSS Dashboard also was updated (the cutoff date is January 17, but this diagram has additional data compared to last week's report).

I'm not subscribing to any crystal ball methods for predicting how WRIS will progress; I've seen some intimations that covid will be mild this winter, but I worry that some folks are trying to fit covid into a seasonal virus pattern which so far we've learned is not true.

Any bets on whether we'll see MMWR this week?

Happy Year of the Snake! Sức khỏe dồi dào

https://chus.vn/year-of-the-snake/

I just returned from a mad dash to Orlando, FL. No, I wasn't paying Mickey and Minnie a visit, just putting in an almost cameo appearance at the American Academy of Pediatrics National Conference and Exhibition. Apparently they were desperate for speakers because they invited me to give a talk about how to approach reading journal articles. A few dozen attendees politely endured my presentation, but I, and I think even most of the attendees, had a fun time. I also got to chat with a few old friends, always nice.

Although the trip was nice, I was most excited about the notice I received from my bird feeder while I was away. More on that later.

Potpourri

I came across a smattering of unrelated items this past week, grouped here.

I think we could all use some good news from the Middle East now. The WHO announced that Jordan has become the first country in the world to be certified to have eliminated autochthonous (locally-acquired) leprosy. That is no mean feat and required tremendous efforts and resources both from the country of Jordan as well as the WHO. It has been over 20 years since they've had an autochthonous case in Jordan.

The CDC has sent out a notice about mpox prevention through their Health Alert Network. It's not new, but worth reviewing to understand risk groups and to remind us to ask about international travel plans of our patients.

I've deliberately avoided commenting on the possible person-to-person spread of influenza A H5N1 in Missouri, but it's been in the lay press. Close contacts of 1 confirmed case had illnesses that could be consistent with this form of bird flu, but we don't have any test results from the contacts. I just mention it to stress that this is an evolving story. It would be a change for this organism if human-to-human transmission is now common.

Vaccine News

A couple intriguing reports last week from the CDC via the weekly MMWR. First are survey results that give us a glimpse at what happened with childhood immunization rates during the pandemic. It should surprise no one that vaccination coverage at 24 months of age declined by a few percentage points from birth year 2018-19 to birth year 2020-2021. For the combined 7-dose series (doesn't include covid vaccination) the rate dropped from 70.1% to 66.9%. This just adds to the possibility for sustained epidemics especially if clusters of poorly immunized children are grouped together. Here's a list of the national data for the 2020-2021 birth year cohort:

The entire table was too large to put in everything here, but Montana had the lowest numbers followed by California at second worst. You can look up your state and region in the article.

The same MMWR also had some new data on covid in children under 6 months of age. It provides compelling rationale for maternal immunization. First, here's what age-associated covid hospitalization rates look like from the surveillance network:

Further data showed that infant hospitalization rates are higher than rates in the elderly (75 years and above). In a subset of 1148 infant records that underwent extensive review, 9 deaths were recorded. Overall 22% of the hospitalizations involved intensive care admissions. Looking just at the 1065 infants for whom maternal vaccination status was available, it appears that maternal vaccination during pregnancy could be an important preventive measure for severe infant covid illness.

Note the careful wording: "No record of maternal vaccination during pregnancy." This points to the fact that these records might have been incomplete or even wrong - the providers may have recorded information incorrectly, or the mother may have been mistaken about vaccination status and timing. I'm still impressed with the information, especially since these numbers are very recent, from the omicron period when virtually every adult had some sort of immunity either via natural infection, vaccination, or both. Maternal covid vaccination is important to protect both the pregnant person, itself a high risk group, as well as the infant who is too young to receive covid vaccine.

A New Antiviral for RSV?

A placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind trial of a few hundred infants hospitalized for RSV in China suggests that a newer antiviral agent, ziresovir, might be an effective treatment.

The main endpoint is change in the "Wang score" which is a relatively unvalidated scoring scale for assessing RSV severity. You can see the decline in the score is a bit better with the treatment group compared to placebo, but is the change in score clinically important? As a still wet-behind-the-ears ID attending, I witnessed early studies of randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of aerosolized ribavirin for hospitalized infants with bronchiolitis; my boss, a renowned pediatric infectious diseases physician named Bill Rodriguez, headed up these multi-center studies. I witnessed potential pitfalls in using scoring systems for bronchiolitis, particularly the problem with intra- and inter-rater reliability in assessments: it's hard to be consistent with scoring when the events you're looking at are somewhat subjective. Also, the aerosolized ribavirin left a fine powder on the infants, difficult to disguise even when the nurse tried to remove it before the investigator did the scoring. So, it wasn't perfectly double-blinded, in some cases not blinded at all. At blinding wasn't a problem with ziresovir, which is administered orally. Aerosolized ribavirin did work, but ultimately the costs outweighed the benefits (plus some risk to providers of inhaling the medication if the patient room was not well-ventilated and potential for teratogenicity), so the practice didn't last long.

I'll wait to see more data about this intriguing new agent. In the meantime, remember we have very effective methods of preventing severe RSV disease in infants by either maternal vaccination or administration of long-acting monoclonal antibody (nirsevimab) to infants whose mothers were not immunized.

Crystal Ball Time

What's coming this winter, and how bad will it be? Don't place any big bets on the CDC's latest predictions, they have only low to moderate confidence with their model, but it's by far the best data we have.

Here goes: "CDC expects the upcoming fall and winter respiratory disease season will likely have a similar or lower number of combined peak hospitalizations due to COVID-19, influenza, and RSV compared to last season."

That's good news. The experts were moderately confident of predictions for individual infections, but it's not really possible to anticipate all of the variables that could change the predictions dramatically, such as immunization uptake. Of course, if a new covid variant arises with a very effective immune escape mechanism, no one will be betting and we'll be in for a bad time.

Here's some more tidbits:

For example, if our summer covid activity peaks early (which it seems to be doing), they predict a milder winter season than if covid continues to rise now.

If you're a nerd like me, you can look at their description of how they developed this prediction model.

For the Birds

Getting back to my bird feeder, regular readers will recall my travails discussed in prior posts, including battling squirrel seed raiders. Things have settled down now, and I seldom see new species, but the past 2 days I've had my first sightings of a red-bellied woodpecker. The first thing I noted from my feeder's video (still photo taken below) is that I don't see a prominent red belly.

Other views show the typical zebra-like striping on the wings - why not call it the zebra woodpecker? - and the Cornell app quickly identified its call as the red-bellied variety. As usual, I couldn't help but see what new woodpecker tidbits I could learn from the worlds of literature and music. My childhood and adolescent "career" playing tenor saxophone made me a fan of big band music, particularly of Glenn Miller, and I discovered he had recorded The Woodpecker Song. It's not that great in my opinion, but at least I learned something new. One of my other musical heroes, Chuck Berry, recorded a purely instrumental (with saxophone solo!) song called Woodpecker. My favorite find, though, was a new-to-me poet, Elizabeth Madox Roberts. She was a Kentucky-born daughter of a Confederate soldier, active as a poet and novelist in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. She seems to have the largest numbers of poetry web sites extolling her virtues for poems about woodpeckers. Here's her poem The Woodpecker in its entirety:

The woodpecker pecked out a little round hole
And made him a house in the telephone pole.

One day when I watched he poked out his head,
And he had on a hood and a collar of red.

When the streams of rain pour out of the sky,
And the sparkles of lightning go flashing by,

And the big, big wheels of thunder roll,
He can snuggle back in the telephone pole.

It's my usual Sunday to put the final touches on this week's post though working on it earlier than my usual late morning start since I had to watch the Women's World Cup soccer match. In case you recorded it to watch later, I won't reveal any spoilers.

It's Official for Nirsevimab

On August 3 the ACIP voted to recommend the long-acting monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (brand name Beyfortus) to prevent RSV. It is recommended for use in all infants under 8 months of age, just before or during the RSV season, and also for infants 8-19 months of age with the usual high-risk medical conditions just before their second RSV season. Dr. Mandy Cohen, the new CDC director, formally adopted those recommendations. It will eventually replace the current product, palivizumab (Synagis), which has been administered just to the high-risk groups monthly during RSV season.

I didn't log in to the ACIP meeting but did review the slides and reports (available here). Most of the information had already seen the light of day at the prior FDA meeting that approved the product, but a few items are noteworthy.

First, authorities now refer to this product as a vaccine, although that's not quite true in the scientific sense. This is a strategy to try to have this funded by the Vaccines for Children program. The product will be very expensive (probably around $450 - 500 for a dose), and even standard health insurance companies are notorious in avoiding reimbursement for new products.

For infants born just before or during RSV season, nirsevimab would best be administered by the birthing hospital prior to discharge. I was surprised to learn that only 10% of US birthing hospitals participate in the VFC program. Most provide bundled services for deliveries; hepatitis B vaccine is often covered in this manner, but that cost is only $13-16 per dose. Will bundling work for a much more expensive product? These payment issues could impact ability to administer the new therapy particularly for the upcoming RSV season. There isn't much time to figure out these details.

Presentations from CDC personnel helped show the potential impact of nirsevimab, using a Number Needed to Immunize (again with the vaccine nomenclature). Based on the available 2 randomized controlled trials in mostly healthy infants, where ICU admissions were rare and deaths thankfully absent in the study infants, NNI was favorable particularly for preventing hospitalization but also for prevention of medically-attended illness.

In other words, 128 infants would need to receive nirsevimab to prevent 1 additional child from being hospitalized for RSV. Various cost-effectiveness analyses showed this to be a good use of funds.

Data are not yet available to perform similar analyses for high-risk infants receiving therapy prior to their second RSV season, but antibody levels in those infants following treatment strongly suggest it will be effective.

CDC will provide us with more detailed recommendations soon. They did provide an example of timing for "vaccination" with nirsevimab. As mentioned above, for children born just before or during RSV season (October 1 through March 31 in most parts of the US), nirsevimab would be administered at birth. Otherwise, administration would be timed for the well-child checks in primary care provider offices, perhaps in October and November. The October batch could include infants born the previous April (at their 6-month visit), June (4-month visit), and August (2-month visit). Infants born the previous May (6-month visit), July (4-month visit), and September (2-month visit) would receive their dose in November. A bit complicated, but at the moment I can't think of a better plan to make this run smoothly for office practices.

We also need guidance if FDA approves the maternal RSV vaccine for pregnant people. Providing nirsevimab to infants whose mothers were vaccinated during pregnancy is probably unnecessary. FDA is supposed to decide this month on the maternal RSV vaccine once they receive updated results from the ongoing trials.

Regardless, all pediatric healthcare providers need to stay tuned; this could be a major change in office practice this fall.

Don't Go Home With the Armadillo, etc.

A case report of possble authochthonous leprosy in central Florida reminds us that, Jerry Jeff Walker notwithstanding, one can acquire leprosy in the US without having contact with humans or armadillos with leprosy. The report and other epidemiologic evidence suggests that leprosy may be endemic in southeastern US.

Cold air might aid in croup treatment according to a new randomized controlled trial in an emergency department. In addition to treatment with dexamethasone, children with croup were randomized (not in a blinded fashion, obviously) to outside cold air for 30 minutes, compared to room temperature indoors. The cold air kids seemed to improve faster.

Conflict in My Favorite Medical Feed

I've been reading ProMED posts several times a day for years and have donated funds to them during that time. They were the first to report all 3 coronavirus outbreaks this century. I was a bit disappointed to learn recently that they will start charging a subscription fee but was resigned to the fact that I'd be shelling out a few more bucks. Now I've learned there's a big kerfuffle in the background. The frontline folks who do all the work are protesting new management moves. I hope this is resolved, I can't imagine life without ProMED.

'Demic Doldrums

No big changes this week, CDC numbers are similar to last week and all indicators point to an increase in SARS-CoV-2 activity in the US and elsewhere. Not to rely too much on anecdotal data, but my own primary care provider remarked to me at a visit last week that he has seen an upswing in positive tests in his practice. Let's hope this will be a minor blip and not the start of a large new wave.

Some Good News From Down Under

Again, no soccer spoilers from me. But, maybe flu has peaked in Australia; if so, this season is a bit better than 2022 and might bode well for our own flu season.