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One of the many reasons I love to read is to discover new words to add to my vocabulary. Reading Colin Dexter reminds me of the need to keep a dictionary close by.

WRIS

The US Winter Respiratory Infection Season hasn't started yet; activity is low to minimal everywhere.

Note that the map above is a new twist from CDC: rather than "Influenza-Like Illness" activity, this reflects all acute respiratory illness by not requiring fever in the definition. So, it probably picks up more of all those other respiratory viruses out there. For the 2 graphs below, just use the same link above and scroll down.

Percentage of ED visits due to the "big 3" viruses is minimal, with covid dropping dramatically.

Since I'm trying to figure out the best timing for my own flu shot, I looked at influenza A wastewater tracking:

Only Rhode Island makes it to moderate activity, all the others with data are minimal or low. Probably the key part of the map above is the number of hatched/limited coverage states. For example, New York flu A wastewater activity only includes Albany and Rochester, not much help to the New York City folks.

Given the WRIS lull, clinicians might be interested in a recent CDC overview of covid and flu management. I couldn't log on to the live presentation but reviewed the slides and took the test for (free) CME credit. The presentation was well done, I recommend it as a good review.

Forbear the Bear (Meat)

Not that long ago (5/24/24 post) I relayed a CDC report about a 2022 trichinellosis outbreak linked to frozen Canadian bear meat. Less than 5 months later, CDC is telling us about another one, this time from 2023 at a single "feast" in North Carolina. It doesn't have as much detail as the earlier report, we don't know much about the food preparation methods and none of the ill persons returned for confirmatory lab testing. It certainly sounds like trichinellosis, however; in addition to a nonspecific febrile illness, 9 of the 10 probable cases reported facial swelling which for me is a T. spiralis infection clue.

I visited a number of wild game/hunting sites to see what advice consumers of bear meat might see. Most sites correctly cautioned hunters to cook bear meat to at least 165 F internal temperature, but a few did not. Also, many mentioned other wild game meats that taste better than bear meat. I won't be ordering bear meat anytime soon, but if you are drawn to the experience check out the CDC web site or this advice from Massachusetts that also includes recipes!

Travel to Rwanda?

Last week I mentioned the Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda, and this past week CDC upgraded a travel alert for the area which has caused quite a kerfuffle. Rwanda now has a CDC level 3 travel alert status, meaning that nonessential travel to the area should be reconsidered. Three days after the CDC advisory, WHO pushed back. WHO believes that travel restrictions will be ineffective in controlling the outbreak plus may prove harmful to local economies and serve as a disincentive for sharing of public health data from those countries, harming control efforts. These are valid concerns; choosing the proper course of action probably requires something approaching the wisdom of Solomon.

Also, an experimental Marburg vaccine has made its way to Rwanda, now primarily being used and studied in health care providers who form the bulk of new cases, plus other high risk individuals. This study is of extreme importance, and I'm hopeful that we'll see good data eventually.

OED

For a brief moment in my past, I longed to have a complete print version of the Oxford English Dictionary at my elbow. It was short-lived: the standard version comes in 20 volumes and now lists for $1000+. A bargain is the "compact" version at about half that price; it is a "photo reduction" of the original, with 9 pages of the original on each single page. It comes with its own magnifying glass.

It's a lot easier to just look at the online OED to find out that hebdomadal means "weekly." I also learned that it's not commonly used, fewer than 0.01 occurrences per million words in modern written English. Maybe I've now bumped that up to 0.02.

Dexter's Inspector Morse character, in his second installment entitled Last Seen Wearing, mentions his "regular hebdomadal debate" when faced with his weekly dilemma of whether to purchase the more cultured Sunday Times versus the coarse News of the World at the newsstand. I can see parallels to my own cultural preferences in literature, music, and art. However, the hebdomadal part of my habits clearly is this blog. Any further resemblance to Inspector Morse ends here though; he is a true, albeit fictional, polymath who happens to be a detective. I am a real-life physician who happens to have diverse interests, like most of us.

2

We've had a slow week of infectious diseases events, but that hasn't slowed down the chatter and noise. I've tried to distill out the more important topics this week.

The Covid Front

Even though US tracking systems have been greatly dismantled in many states, I can still safely say we are in a lull. Naturally, thoughts turn to predicting the next surge and how to mitigate it.

I mentioned in my May 5 post that the FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meeting to decide on composition of the next iteration of covid vaccine would be held on May 16 and likely would make the same decision as the WHO already has, using the JN.1 variant. However, they suddenly postponed this meeting to June 5. FDA didn't offer an explanation for the postponement, but the last-minute change leads me to suspect that they wanted a little more time to think about newer variants with possible significant differences in immune-escape properties. Here's a deeper dive into that.

As you can see in this latest CDC variant report, the dark purple JN.1 proportion is decreasing, with KP.1 and KP.2 starting to expand. Both of those are in the JN. 1 lineage:

All of the JN and KP variants are informally called FLiRT variants, an easier shorthand than trying to remember all the letters and numbers. It stands for amino acid substitutions, in this case phenylalanine (F) substituted for leucine (L) in the 456 position (F456L) and arginine (R) to threonine (T) in the 346 position (R346T) in the spike protein genomic code. These 2 mutations are in antibody binding sites that neutralize the virus, and the mutations make SARS-CoV-2 less vulnerable to vaccine- and infection-acquired antibodies. A JN.1-derived vaccine likely would offer some protection, but perhaps by the June meeting we'll know a bit more about all of this. If they do recommend using KP.2 instead of JN.1 for example, I don't think there would be a significant delay in mRNA vaccine production by Pfizer and Moderna, but it might cause problems for other vaccine platforms such as the one used by Novavax, the other approved vaccine in the US which is an adjuvanted protein subunit vaccine. I'll be watching as much of the June 5 meeting as I can.

HPAI

Now we have a grand total of 2 people in the US infected this year with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, along with a lot of cattle and other animals; a recent MMWR provides details. The new, improved CDC website has lots of helpful links. The second case, in Michigan, was similar to the first human case of A H5N1 infection in Texas - very mild illness with conjunctivitis as the primary symptom. This strikes me as very unusual for evolving epidemics in that usually the more severe cases are identified first because they are more likely to come to medical attention. Both of these cases were identified through surveillance of dairy workers which suggests to me that currently HPAI in humans is a very mild infection, possibly with high rates of asymptomatic infection. This is a good thing generally, but also problematic for tracking infection rates. The MMWR reports only 350 exposed dairy workers are being followed, a very small number. Ideally we'd have more tracking of cattle and dairy workers, regardless of illness or exposure to infected animals. Getting cooperation from dairy farms will be difficult, we're talking about livelihoods in an industry where a shutdown for a cow outbreak could send someone into bankruptcy.

I'm watching multiple feeds to keep up with all of this. A report in NEJM last week was encouraging - heat inactivation of spiked milk samples significantly lowered infectivity in mice fed the milk.

Also in the good news department, USDA reported preliminary findings on HPAI detection in muscle tissue of culled dairy cows. 95 of 96 samples tested so far were negative by PCR. Note that these were condemned animals, none of the meat entered the food supply.

On the somewhat negative side, more cattle herds have been hit with the virus, according to USDA.

Poultry outbreaks also continue with Minnesota registering more detections last week. Note that backyard flocks are not immune to HPAI.

On a slightly related topic, I was disappointed but not surprised to learn that the World Health Assembly, the decision body for the WHO, removed a pandemic preparedness treaty that was to be discussed at their meeting starting May 27. It appears that political considerations caused the cancellation; much misinformation is circulating, especially in the US. The treaty would help countries design programs for pandemic preparedness and in no way allows the WHO to control countries' own public health programs as claimed by some sources.

Potpourri

A scattering of reports might be interesting for readers. First, beware of undercooked bear meat. Six out of eight people who consumed undercooked, previously frozen black bear meat developed trichinellosis. Freezing doesn't kill Trichinella parasites. Beware the (undercooked) bear.

CDC released a Health Advisory Network alert for meningococcal disease in Saudi Arabia, although this is pretty much routine for this time of year during religious pilgrimage season. Travelers to the region should be immunized for meningococcal disease, which is more easily transmitted in the crowded situations during Islamic pilgrimages to Mecca.

Speaking of Noise

I'm pretty sure I've never mentioned this in the blog, probably because I'm so embarrassed, but I'm a 2-time harmonica school dropout. This last exit was due to a combination of my inability to master bending notes on the diatonic harmonica and the fact that my dog runs away from me every time when she hears my mellifluous tones. I've now solved the second problem by clearing a practice space in my trash-heap of a basement where the dog can't hear me, but bending will still be a challenge. It's a technique to hit notes that are in between standard notes; there are maybe hundreds of online instruction sites for how to form your mouth to do this, but basically it's just trial and error and takes several months for most people.

Graphic courtesy of Luke.

Maybe by announcing my intentions I'll be shamed into pulling it together this time and can return to harmonica school. I can't promise to report on my progress, especially if I have none!