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The 33rd edition of the American Academy of Pediatrics' 2024-2027 Report of the Committee on Infectious Diseases, aka Red Book, arrived online (and on my doorstep) recently. This latest edition adds about 100 pages to the 32nd edition, even as many sections were combined or shortened. More than annual spring cleaning, this is a renewal effort for me that has become an enjoyable triennial task for me. Although the early pages provide a brief summary of changes (total 222) from the previous edition, I operationalize this by having the new Red Book at my side always, looking up every clinical situation I encounter in reading or in patient care. Not surprisingly, even after doing this for maybe the next year, I still won't remember everything, but I'll know when and where to look. Remember also that the Red Book advice is in many instances a set of consensus opinions that are subject to author bias, even with extensive review and editing. Nothing is etched in stone, and individual patient circumstances may require deviation from general recommendations.

In the meantime, let's look at what's been going on in pediatric infectious diseases recently; this isn't in the Red Book.

A New Look CDC Website

Our friends at CDC announced a new look to their website with a focus on reducing clutter and making access easier. After my first series of run-throughs, I think they are well on their way to that goal. It's worth your while to view their 2-minute YouTube video describing the changes.

Bird Flu News

Still no reason to increase fears of the next human pandemic, but plenty going on. The US Department of Agriculture (they should talk to their CDC colleagues about reducing website clutter and improving navigation!) updated beef safety with some new studies. First, USDA tested ground beef samples from stores in states known to have influenza A H5N1 present in cattle; all were negative by PCR, although they don't mention how many samples were tested. Second, they performed studies on cooking ground beef spiked with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza "surrogate" virus (they don't specify details or numbers). Cooking the burgers to medium (145 F) or well done (160 F) eliminated all live virus. Rare (120 F) cooking "substantially inactivated" the virus, whatever that means. I'm looking forward to results of another ongoing study of PCR testing of muscle samples from cows who were culled due to "systemic pathologies" which should go a long way in helping understand if there is any reasonable risk of transmission of H5N1 in raw beef.

Meanwhile, in the latest update there have been no new state detections in domestic livestock since April 24. Bird infections remain a major problem as judged from USDA's main avian influenza website.

FDA provided a little more detailed information than did USDA. They found no viable virus in 297 pasteurized dairy products tested and confirmed by egg inoculation studies which should be highly sensitive.

Things are improving, but more proactive testing, especially of asymptomatic wild and domestic animals and high-risk humans such as poultry and dairy workers, is needed to stay ahead of any epidemic trends.

MMWR Trifecta

I'm not a big horse-racing fan, though I did watch the Preakness this weekend. This week's (May 16) MMWR hit a trifecta for me in that 3 topics are worth mentioning, so here's a quick look.

Measles: We have a detailed report of the outbreak associated with the migrant shelter in Chicago, spread over February through April 2024. Here's the quick overview:

The key take-home points: 1) Most of the 57 cases occurred in unvaccinated individuals; 2) active case-finding and a mass vaccination campaign (882 residents were vaccinated) likely averted a larger disaster.

I wish we had similar reporting from the Florida public school outbreak, apparently managed very differently but we know nothing about what was done. I can still find only a March 8 update that sounds mostly like a political statement.

Clade I Mpox: This clade I outbreak continues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and, compared to the clade II strain that caused the global outbreak in 2022, this clade I seems more virulent, with higher morbidity and mortality than seen with clade II (this was known prior to this outbreak). Again, here's the big picture:

While the numbers appear to be trending downward in the latter dates on this graph, this could be due to delays in reporting.

Age distributions are alarming for pediatric healthcare providers though clearly are influenced by social factors present in the DRC and might not apply to any US cases if we do see global spread.

The Jynneos mpox vaccine is effective against both clades, and high-risk individuals in the US should be vaccinated. The newly revamped CDC mpox site is a good example of how they've improved the look and ease of navigation. Providers should access this again to be sure they have offered vaccine to those at risk.

Polio: This was an update on progress towards polio eradication and is a good news/bad news report. The good news is that wild-type polio infections appear to be decreasing over the period January 2022 to December 2023. Wild type polioviruses types 2 and 3 (WPV2 and WPV3) have been eradicated, and only WPV1 continues to circulate but just in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 2023 there were only 12 cases of WPV1 identified, compared to 22 in 2022, a decrease even with more extensive sewage screening in 2023. The bad news is that circulating vaccine-derived polio (cVDPV) cases, from live polio vaccine, continues to be a problem. The number of cases decreased (881 in 2022 to 524 in 2023) but the number of countries affected increased from 24 to 32. The vast majority of these are cVDPV1 and cVDPV2. WHO has newer and more effective vaccination strategies to eliminate both wild and vaccine-derived strain infections, but implementation is difficult.

Books - Red and Other Colors

Regular readers of this blog know that I'm an avid reader. I'm not an avid book collector, however. I try to keep a relatively static number of books in the house, requiring donating old books to my neighborhood public library's used bookstore as I acquire new ones (my last trip to a used bookstore resulted in 11 additions to my sagging bookshelves). However, I'm now reminded that I have 3 collections that I don't recycle from my shelves.

First is the Red Book. I own all editions dating back to 1961, the 13th edition, plus the 6th edition of 1944. I've been unable to find the remaining 11 editions, probably because I'm not as adept at used bookstore searches as I am at PubMed searches. I'll keep trying. Three pediatric infectious diseases giants, Drs. Larry Pickering, Georges Peter, and Stan Shulman, wrote a nice review of Red Book history in 2013.

My other 2 non-recyclable book collections are very different. One is the Audrey/Maturin series of nautical novels by Patrick O'Brian. I also own several of his lesser works. I'm not sure why I hang on to all of those; perhaps it's because my initial attempt at reading one was quickly abandoned due to boredom. Years later I picked it up again and was hooked. My other collector fascination is the Parker noir series by Richard Stark, a pseudonym of Donald Westlake. I lack many in the series which I could easily buy as newly issued printings, but I prefer to prowl used bookstores for older copies. I haven't happened upon an old one in years, but hope springs eternal.

Well, not really horror stories, but it was a slow week for epidemics that allowed me to finish two somewhat disturbing pieces of literature. First, the news.

I'm pleased to report nothing particularly new on the measles front, so I won't bother with the recitation of statistics and graphs. Based on the measles incubation period, it appears we are out of the woods from the Chicago clusters thanks to excellent public health interventions. The Florida school issue hasn't surfaced again though we are still lacking accurate descriptions of how it was managed - did un-immunized children isolate at home, were catch-up immunizations administered?

A Few Covid Updates

This past week the World Health Organization Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19 Vaccine Composition (TAG-CO-VAC if you're attracted to cumbersome acronyms) advised use of a monovalent JN.1 variant vaccine for the next iteration. Although the WHO TAG-CO-VAC doesn't make official recommendations for the US, none of these discussions occur in a vacuum and I expect the FDA VRBPAC to come to the same conclusion when they meet on the subject on May 16. The CDC/ACIP likely will rule on this in late June, in time for potential fall booster recommendations.

The most recent variant tracking in the US largely shows JN.1 and its offspring as predominant.

Here's the latest family tree in the US showing the.relationships of the currently circulating variants.

Also noteworthy is a change in hospital covid reporting. As of May 1, hospitals no longer are required to report covid hospitalizations. Although efforts are underway to go back to mandatory reporting, for now all hospital reporting is voluntary which will likely mean no reporting for many institutions. So, don't try to compare future covid hospitalization rates to prior data. It would be another apples and oranges comparison.

Lessons From Quality Improvement

This month's issue of Pediatrics contained some QI articles. They are worthwhile reading for the QI aspects, but I think many front-line pediatric healthcare providers might want to compare their own practices to the standards used in two of the studies concerning infectious diseases.

The first of the studies involved standards for management of well-appearing febrile infants ages 8 to 60 days in emergency departments. Parenthetically, I'm in awe of the authors for pulling off a multi-institutional research study in the midst of the pandemic. I barely had time to breath during some of those months.

The authors looked at multiple outcomes, and I won't go into the actual QI processes themselves. Here are the primary measures they sought to improve (remember these are all well-appearing infants):

  • 90% of infants 29–60 d with normal inflammatory markers (and either a negative UA or a positive UA) DO NOT have CSF obtained 
  • 90% of infants 29–60 d with normal inflammatory markers and negative UA discharged from the ED 
  • 90% of infants 29–60 d with normal inflammatory markers and negative UA DO NOT receive antibiotics 
  • 90% of infants 8–60 d with negative cultures have appropriate discharge from the hospital within 36 h from the time blood cultures were received by the laboratory 

How does your local ED or practice compare?

The second article also was hospital-focused and carried out during pandemic peaks. It dealt with minimizing unnecessary antibiotic use in common pediatric infections for children above 60 days of age. Again, many outcomes were examined, but think about these in your own practice:

  • Antibiotic duration for community-acquired pneumonia < 10 days
  • Antibiotic duration for UTI < 10 days
  • Antibiotic duration for skin and soft tissue infections < 5 days

The above durations for CAP and UTI probably are too long. It would be difficult to justify therapy beyond 7 days for these entities assuming good clinical response, and courses as short as 5 days have been suggested.

There's a lot more to these studies that I haven't mentioned. Please look at them if you manage these types of patients in your practice.

Of Cows and Cats

Bird flu, primarily influenza A H5N1, continues to surprise us. Let me state up front, however, there is no reason to be overly concerned about consumption of pasteurized dairy products or getting rid of your pet cat. People who ingest unpasteurized dairy or have close contact with cows or chickens (including those backyard coops) need to be cautious.

The count of bird flu in wild mammals continues to expand:

Genetic testing of dairy cow milk samples and of 2 cats who died at the dairy farm strongly suggests transmission of influenza A H5N1 from cows to cats. The cats had ingested unpasteurized milk at the farm. The cows were only mildly ill, but the cats had severe neurologic symptoms due to the virus. This report concerns only a few animals but at the least suggests that humans could be at risk for infection from unpasteurized dairy products.

We still have only one known human infection related to dairy cows in the US, but now we have more details about that case. As reported earlier, this dairy farm worker had mild symptoms consisting of pain and redness of the right eye. Especially given the perhaps mild and atypical presentation of influenza in this instance, more testing of asymptomatic dairy workers and other high risk individuals is needed.

I had mentioned in previous posts I'm trying to monitor USDA updates on this situation, but so far most have just clogged my inbox with irrelevant notices. I did receive one relevant alert that at least told me someone is watching out for us. Due to concerns about bird flu in the Chiba prefecture in Japan, imports of live birds as well as bird products and byproducts are prohibited. In case you are thinking about bringing back some bird souvenirs from Chiba, please be aware:

"Processed avian products and byproducts, including eggs and egg products, for personal use originating from or transiting a restricted prefecture and entering in passenger baggage must:  

  • have a thoroughly cooked appearance; or 
  • be shelf-stable as a result of APHIS-approved packaging and cooking (i.e., packaged in a hermetically sealed container and cooked by a commercial method after such packing to produce an article that is shelf stable without refrigeration); or  
  • be accompanied by an APHIS import permit and/or government certification confirming that the products or byproducts were treated in accordance with APHIS requirements. 

Unprocessed avian products and byproducts for personal use or in passenger baggage originating from or transiting a restricted prefecture will not be permitted to enter the United States. This includes hunter harvested, non-fully finished avian trophies and meat."

Reliable information on bird flu is increasing. It seems very likely that pasteurization effectively inactivates live H5N1 from dairy products and that these influenza strains remain susceptible to commonly available antiviral agents used for influenza. But, I still have questions:

  • What is the range of symptoms of avian flu infection in a wide range of animals, including humans?
  • How common is asymptomatic infection in various species?
  • What is the specificity and sensitivity of commonly-used influenza detection methods for influenza A H5N1?

For now, even though we are beyond our winter flu season, anyone with flu-like illness should be tested for influenza and also asked about exposure risks involving domestic or wild animals or ingestion of unpasteurized dairy products. Look to the CDC website for guidance.

My Disturbing Week

My wife abandoned reading Ian McEwan's latest novel, Lessons, due to its unsettling content in its early pages. Nonetheless, I decided to slog through this nearly 500-page tome and found I couldn't put it down. It was truly disturbing, including depictions of abuse of the young male protagonist that were hard to read. Ultimately, though, I found the novel very thought-provoking in spite of the fact that the protagonist wasn't very likable and seemed to respond passively to much of his life events. These events were shaped by a series of historical occurrences that also were meaningful to me: World War II (before my time, but still significant) the Cuban missile crisis in the 1960s, the fall of the Berlin wall, the September 11 attack, and more recently the January 6 attack, among others.

About a week ago I happened to watch Apocalypse Now Redux, the longer version of the 1979 movie about the Vietnam War which itself was a take on Joseph Conrad's Heart of Darkness. The longer movie version added more uncomfortable scenes to the already unsettling original. As a boy I had read at least 3 of Conrad's novels plus maybe a few short stories, but never Heart of Darkness. It's really a novella, just under 150 pages, and I felt compelled to read it this week. I loved it, as I do most of Contrad's works. More than that, I was astounded at how deftly the novella was transplanted from the late 19th century into late 1960s Vietnam. How did it not win the academy award for best adapted screenplay? (That was Kramer vs. Kramer.) I found myself waiting to see if the 19th century Kurtz would have the same *final utterance as in the movie version. You'll need to read the book to find out!

My Respite Week

Given the slow times in infectious diseases (now I've jinxed myself) and a busy week of other activities in front of me, I'm planning to skip a Sunday post for Mother's Day. Barring any major events, I'll see you next on May 19.

Even though Maryland wasn't in the full eclipse path, I miraculously located my eclipse glasses and enjoyed Monday's event. It easily overshadowed last week's relatively quiet collection of infections.

Newer Covid Publications

CDC gave us more reassurance that cardiac events associated with covid vaccination are mild. For the period June 2021 - December 2022, investigators looked at Oregon death certificate data in adolescents and young adults (16 - 30 year-olds). They found 40 deaths, 3 of which occurred < 100 days following receipt of covid vaccine, a time period when vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis occurs. Of those 3, 2 individuals had underlying disease (one had mitral stenosis associated with chronic respiratory failure, the other congestive heart failure due to hypertension, with comorbidities of morbid obesity, type 2 diabetes, and obstructive sleep apnea). The other person died of "undetermined natural cause" 45 days after vaccination; toxicology results showed aripiprazole, ritalinic acid, and trazodone, presumably medications the individual was receiving but apparently not definitively explaining a cause for death. To most scientists this is further good news, but I'm sure anti-vaxxers will somehow spin this as a negative. Below is the big picture:

German investigators reported success of a program using pooled SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing to allow children to remain in day care versus quarantining after covid exposure, which they termed a "test-to-stay" approach.

The investigators estimated that. over a 30-week period, they avoided between 7 and 20 days of quarantine per eligible child. The study was performed from March 2021 to April 2022, at a different state of immunity and variants than we are experiencing today but still helpful to strategize when we hit the next big outbreak.

More on Bird Flu/HPAI

Highly pathogenic avian influenza news has calmed down a bit, but the viruses are still out there. We are up to 21 dairy herds with outbreaks according to USDA:

As of April 10, CDC reports widespread detections in wild birds with sporadic outbreaks in poultry flocks, sporadic infections in mammals, and still just the 2 human infections.

Measles

Not as many new cases now, with Illinois and Florida retaining the dubious distinction as leading all states this year. The national total stands at 121.

CDC reported that most US measles outbreaks from 1/1/20 through 3/28/24 were triggered by unvaccinated US residents returning from foreign travel. This is a good reminder for frontline clinicians to advise people planning foreign travel this summer to ensure their families have not only up-to-date immunizations but also early measles immunization for infants and toddlers who otherwise have not received 2 doses of MMR.

I also happened upon a link for assessing measles outbreak risk in US communities. I resisted the temptation to copy the entire page here, please check out the link. Here's a few highlights:

So, about 29% of US communities are at risk for small or medium outbreaks, with 1% at risk for a large outbreak. Even within communities with the same vaccination coverage, outbreak risk can vary if they have pockets of unvaccinated people.

And a look at outbreak modeling risks for measles outbreaks after one measles case is introduced in a school, according to vaccine coverage rates. (Note these numbers apply for situations where no post-exposure preventive measures are instituted. Risks go down if established interventions are applied.)

Here's the latest (2022-23) geographic measles vaccine coverage data.

Fingers crossed for measles to continue to slow down, though I'm predicting another blip around travel season.

See you next week!

This week I'm very challenged to limit the number of topics to discuss; much of interest, though nothing earth-shattering. I'll focus on 2 non-COVID items while slipping in a couple more ideas.

Speaking of COVID-19, it's mostly a good news situation for the moment. I continue to watch developments in the UK and it does seem like their uptick in cases is tailing off without having seen a big increase in hospitalizations. I hope we'll see that trend continue in the US. At the same time, I'm keeping a watch on South Africa. Gauteng province, the first alert to omicron problems originally, now is experiencing an increase in cases and hospitalizations likely driven by BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants. It is also spilling over to other provinces. Time will tell if this is the next new surge there and worldwide.

Also, a good news/bad news package from the FDA. Counterfeit at-home COVID-19 diagnostic tests have appeared, but there are ways to identify them. Also, we saw a tentative schedule for FDA-VRBPAC meetings to discuss vaccines for the youngest children. Data submission from Moderna and Prizer is not yet complete, but I certainly hope one or both of the products will fulfill criteria for authorization.

Be Careful Counting Your Chickens

We now have the first detection of human influenza A H5N1 infection, a "bird flu," in the United States. Not a huge deal from a public health perspective in terms of numbers of people at risk. However, I'm glad it got a little news coverage because clinicians need to be aware of this. Birds have been affected in 30 states so far and include both poultry farms and backyard flocks.

The take-home message for front-line healthcare providers is to remember to inquire about history of close exposure to birds, not just chickens but wild birds as well, in anyone with influenza-like illness. CDC has guidance for what to do.

Fulminant Hepatitis Update

We've had some updates this week, but still more questions than answers. UK scientists have provided us with more information about their cluster investigation, as has the CDC for the cluster in Alabama. The association between adenovirus 41 (a gastrointestinal, not respiratory, adenovirus type) is still just that. The focus so far is on younger, previously healthy children. Whether the adenovirus is causal, a cofactor with another environmental or infectious agent, or just an epiphenomenon remains to be seen. In the meantime, probably a good idea for pediatric healthcare providers to discuss potential hepatitis cases with a subspecialist.

One final iron to mention: summer travel. Travel is opening up worldwide, increasing chance for spread of many infections. I take this opportunity to remind practitioners about measles, now increasing in several places around the world. It is still the most highly contagious respiratory infection known, though I'm waiting for one of the SARS-CoV-2 variants to exceed that. This high transmission rate combined with its rather prolonged incubation period and infectivity prior to clinical symptoms make it easy to take off in a community. Currently with general immunization rates relatively low due to the pandemic, many US communities are at very high risk if measles is introduced. Stay vigilant.