This past weekend, we were delighted to host the inaugural annual meeting of the Arctic PIRE: Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic project. Roughly 30 members of our international research network were in attendance, discussing issues including the framework for our Arctic Urban Sustainability Index, the selection appropriate sustainability indicators, and strategies for strengthening the outreach of our important research. We also discussed future research trips to the Arctic, cooperation with media organizations, such as Planet Forward to increase our accessibility to new audiences, and the creation of an educational resource database for Arctic Sustainability issues.
The conference culminated with a Public Panel discussion on Friday, October 21st, where over 50 members of the public visited The George Washington University to attend the event. Attendees included professors and students, as well as representatives of the National Science Foundation, embassies, and think-tanks based here in Washington DC. As our project builds momentum we will continue to look for more opportunities in research cooperation and outreach, in order to maximize the outreach and accessibility of our project. A full meeting report including notes and results will be published soon!
Last week, three of our distinguished researchers, Dmitry Streletskiy of The George Washington University, Valery Grebenets of Moscow State University, and Oleg Anisomov of Russia’s State Hydrological Institute, were featured in a Guardian article on the effects of thawing permafrost on Arctic cities. The Russian city of Norilsk, discussed a few weeks ago in this blog, stood at the center of attention. This time the focus was on the condition of buildings and the housing stock, which is suffering as a result of thawing permafrost. This issue is well known within Russia with Valery Tereshkov, the deputy head of the emergencies ministry in the Krasnoyarsk region, writing an article a few weeks ago stating that nearly 60% of all buildings in Norilsk have been deformed in some way. Problems caused by climate change and thawing permafrost have also been on the radar of global media, but mostly through the traditional Arctic lens of remote islands and coastal settlements being eroded, or indigenous communities having to move from their ancestral homes. The Guardian article was one of the first times that the global media examined the effects of climate change and thawing permafrost on the scale of a major Arctic city.
Figure 1: Location of Norilsk Photo Credit: BBC
Both in terms of population and economic output, Norilsk is one of the most important Arctic urban centers. With local engineers estimating that more than 100 residential buildings, about one-tenth of the housing stock, “have been vacated here due to damage from thawing permafrost,” this city is facing an existential crisis. Thawing permafrost under vital infrastructure is not a new problem for Arctic engineers, who have been building in the Arctic for many centuries with the largest development happening in Russia. Arctic PIRE member Valery Grebenets of Moscow State University regularly lectures his students on these issues, which include buckling roads, soil runoff killing flora and fauna, and the release of toxic substances trapped in the ice. These experts are also familiar with impact of urban areas on permafrost, such as the heat given off by buildings through their foundations. For many decades, engineers have been finding creative solutions to offset these “technogenic factors,” such as placing buildings on stilts to lessen their transfer of heat into the ground. However, none of these engineering plans took into account the effect of global warming, which has deepened the yearly permafrost thaw and significantly increased the speed of natural degradation. With the Arctic experiencing annual temperature increases that far exceed those recorded in the rest of the world, this ongoing crisis looks set to increase in scale and severity.
Figure 2: An example of the effects of thawing permafrost on a news-stand in Norilsk
Unfortunately, when infrastructure and buildings were planned, climate change was not taken seriously enough by city planners and government officials. As Arctic PIRE member Dmitry Streletskiy of The George Washington University told the Guardian, “In most cases the effect of climate change was not accounted for properly or at all, so the story is not about one building falling, even though there are examples of that, but about thousands of people living in buildings which have the potential to fall.” This is a clear example of the unfortunate lack of input that the scientific community often has in terms of planning for sustainable urban development. This issue compounded in the Arctic region due to the high cost of adapting cities to change. Our colleague Oleg Anisomov, Arctic expert and Nobel Prize holder, laments that the high north will suffer from lack of strong support in terms of government funding and strategic investment in adaptive engineering solutions. Our project aims to Promote Urban Sustainability in the Arctic hope to alter this trend and increase the voice of the scientific community in the Arctic through our upcoming Arctic Urban Sustainability Index and by increasing global attention on these important issues. Through continuous engagement and communication with policy makers, urban planners, and Arctic development planners, our scientific network will advise on the effects of climate and socio-economic changes to Arctic cities and help these important communities adapt to their rapidly changing surroundings.
Figure 3: A building is temporarily braced against collapse.
Over the past two weeks, the Alaska Dispatch News has written several stories about the discovery of an offshore oil deposit in Smith Bay, Alaska. Smith Bay is on the North Slope of Alaska (Figure 1) which is a region historically rich with oil. However, the region has been on the decline in terms of oil production with the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System carrying only 500,000 barrels per day or about one fourth of its designed maximum capacity. The company released a statement on October 5th, estimating the site could provide an additional “200,000 barrels per day of light, highly mobile oil.” The discovery was hailed as a game-changer by the CEO of Caelus Energy, who expects a multibillion-barrel find and the potential for an additional four-billion barrels in an adjoining deposit. With the company envisioning production on the scale of Kuparuk oil field, the second largest in Alaska, Smith Bay would be subject major development, with an initial 250 wells proposed.
Figure 1: Smith Bay on the North Slope is isolated, over 90 miles from the nearest development
After a few days of feverish excitement, realities began to set in. Development is estimated at around $8-10 billion, including $800 million for a 125-mile underwater pipeline, buried in the seabed to protect it from ice flows. Smith Bay is a very remote location, over 90 miles from the closest neighboring development with oil infrastructure. Moreover, every autumn Smith Bay plays host to migrating bowhead whales, heightening concerns among Inupiat communities who hunt the whales for subsistence and the state environmental regulators. Caelus Energy is also very worried about the future of generous tax credits granted to oil companies starting in 2013. As the two-year slump in oil prices continues to squeeze state coffers, some Alaskan legislators have called for a halt to the estimated $750 million annually in tax breaks to oil companies. Meanwhile, Caelus Energy is already owed about $100 million in tax credits for the exploration of Smith Bay. With all this uncertainty, expectations for timely and effective development of the field, hoped to be within five years, have been tempered. However, due to Smith Bay’s great potential, the development of this field is sure to be a major topic for years to come.
Figure 2: The estimated size of the Smith Bay Oil deposit relative to other Alaskan Oil Fields
After 168 years frozen below the ice in Terror Bay, the British Royal Navy’s HMS Terror was located last week by a team from the Arctic Research Foundation thanks to a tip from Sammy Kogvik, an Inuit hunter on their crew. The HMS Terror and her sister ship the HMS Erebus (rediscovered in Queen Maud Gulf in 2014) were part of an 1845 expedition led by Captain Sir John Franklin. The expedition was the most deadly in the polar history of the British Royal Navy, taking the lives of all 129 men, but there have always been questions about exactly what happened. The hunt for the vessels immediately following the disaster was abandoned in 1859 after nothing turned up, and wasn’t resumed for another 150 years.
While the rediscovery presents the opportunity for polar historians to learn what really happened to the Franklin expedition, the motives for finding these historical ships has far more to do with politics and national identity. As the Arctic warms and seasonal ice dwindles, the Northwest Passage may become a viable shipping option through the Arctic, and Canada is anxious to proclaim its sovereignty over the passage. Canada inherited Great Britain’s historical claims to Arctic waters, and a 1997 agreement between Canada and Britain secure Canadian ownership of the ships, with separate provisions for the artefacts and gold that might be found on them. The rediscovery of the HMS Terror and HMS Erebus demonstrate those historical claims to Arctic waters, and focus the country’s attention on a region that is of increasing importance for both the economy and national security.
Local Inuit have not been involved in the discovery of the ships thus far, according to Cathy Towtongie, who runs Nunavut Tunnagavik, an organization that enforces the Nunavut land claims act. But the Canadian government says that it will honor a 1993 Land Claims Act that stipulates joint ownership over all archaeological sites within Nunavut.
Sketch by George Back, illustration from the Toronto Public Library
This past weekend, we were delighted to host the inaugural annual meeting of the Arctic PIRE: Promoting Urban Sustainability in the Arctic project. Roughly 30 members of our international research network were in attendance, discussing issues including the framework for our Arctic Urban Sustainability Index, the selection appropriate sustainability indicators, and strategies for strengthening the outreach of our important research. We also discussed future research trips to the Arctic, cooperation with media organizations, such as Planet Forward to increase our accessibility to new audiences, and the creation of an educational resource database for Arctic Sustainability issues.
